507
FXUS61 KAKQ 011927
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ADDED FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC.
CLIMATE SECTION UPDATE...UPDATED KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN VA,
INCLUDING THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO TONIGHT
WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN TIDEWATER AREA INTO NORTHEAST NC WILL
RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
3) AFTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD,
ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN
VA, INCLUDING THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO
TONIGHT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
SNOW ACROSS THE THE EASTERN TIDEWATER AREA INTO NORTHEAST NC
WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
~976MB SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NE AND AWAY
FROM THE COAST. SNOW REPORTS OF 2-5" WERE COMMON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN VA INTO SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE/VB, WITH 5-8 AND LOCALLY AS
HIGH AS 10-12".
WIND HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO DROP OFF, BUT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH STILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST. EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH,
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS AHEAD TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ARE FORECAST (AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NE NC).
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF HAMPTON
ROADS AND NE NC, INCLUDING THE VA EASTERN SHORE. HAVE DECIDED
NOT TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS WHERE SNOWPACK WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, DID ACCOUNT FOR SLIPPERY ROADS IN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
REMAINING DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, AND WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NNW. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE SYNOPTIC DETAILS LEND THEMSELVES TO
DEVELOPING W-SW WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, THE RELATIVELY WEAK
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE, AND GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR W-NW, IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT BOTH THE
NBM AND THE GRAND ENSEMBLE IN GENERAL ARE SHOWING MINIMAL WINTRY
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS A BIT WEAKER, NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE YET THAT WOULD MAKE FZRA MORE OF A CONCERN.
THEREFORE, STILL LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WOULD SEE
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT RAIN, PERHAPS WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE
START, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE BRIEF WINDOW AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. 12Z/1 GEPS STILL SHOWING SOME LOW-END
PROBABILITIES OF 1-2" SNOW, WITH THE REMAINING ENSEMBLES COMING
EVEN LESS BULLISH. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW QPF VALUES <0.10" AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS < 1" FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR,
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY COLD (THOUGH MAINLY DRY!) WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 105 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA TERMINALS, UNDER A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY. LOW PRESSURE ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS
IT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LLWS
HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT RIC AND SBY DURING LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, EASING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS MONDAY, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR REDUCED
CIGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY. DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND MARINERS STRONGLY CONSIDER ALTERING
PLANS TO REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS TIME.
- DANGEROUS WAVES/SEAS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
- LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE) LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF TONIGHT.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AS SUB-990MB LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNE ABOUT 150-200 MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WINDS ARE N AT 30-40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 KT WITH
8-14 FT SEAS. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
IS ONGOING AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING ICE ACCRETION RATES AS
HIGH AS 1.6 CM/HOUR ON THE BAY (AT STINGRAY PT). ICE ACCRETION RATES
ARE LIKELY HIGHER THAN THAT ON OTHER PARTS OF THE BAY. WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED, WINDS ARE A
COUPLE KNOTS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS, STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY,
COASTAL WATERS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND. STORM
WARNINGS WERE CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
COASTAL ZONES, AND GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY
AND RIVERS. WINDS PEAK THIS MORNING WITH HIGH-END GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH STORM CONDITIONS ON THE
LOWER BAY AND SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL STORM
WARNINGS WILL BE ABLE TO BE CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS EITHER LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AT THE LATEST. THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG
WINDS, COLD WATER TEMPS, AND COLD AIR TEMPS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND
COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, WITH FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT A RATE OF 2 CM/HR CAN CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO MARITIME TRAFFIC AND CAN RENDER EXPOSED
MECHANICAL AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INOPERATIVE.
THE LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NW. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS/WAVES RETURN IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. A PERIOD OF HIGHER
END SCAS OR GALES IS POSSIBLE BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
WRAP-UP PNS FOR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SEE PNSAKQ.
NORFOLK WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ASSUMING
IT DOES SO, IT WILL MARK 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE JAN 8-13, 1981 (6 DAYS).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
656-658.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-638.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB
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