727
FXUS61 KAKQ 021752
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1252 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION UPDATE...
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
2) AFTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AFTER A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE WEEK (PRACTICALLY
SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON TUES), ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH HAS
CHANGED OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES REGARDING THE FRONT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND/OR DISPLACED. PRECIP
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUES EVENING
FROM THE W. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING SHOULD IT STILL BE PRECIPITATING. PRECIP
BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE COULD LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT. WINTRY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE GEPS HANGING ON TO THAT STRIPE
OF 1-2" ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH ARE IN THE 10-30%
RANGE FOR THE GEFS AND EURO ENS, 30-40% FROM THE GEPS. FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MODERATE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT , USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH MAINLY DRY!) WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. APART FROM SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA, MAINLY CLEAR/SKC TODAY
AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST DIMINISH WITH THE
RELAXING GRADIENT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING/WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AND A PERIOD OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY SE TERMINALS WED EVENING THROUGH
THU MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 155 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND OCEAN
THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.
-SUB-SCA WINDS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH ELEVATED SEAS
PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK, THOUGH LOW-END SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE STRONG LOW IS
NOW WELL EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST IS
BUILDING EAST. NW WINDS ARE STILL 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS
ARE STILL QUITE ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY S OF THE VA-NC BORDER WHERE
BUOY 44100 IS STILL REPORTING 11-12 FT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-9 FT N
OF THE BORDER. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES/CURRITUCK
SOUND UNTIL 10 AM, CHES BAY UNTIL 1 PM, AND OCEAN UNTIL 1 AM TUE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY, WITH ~15 KT WINDS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY 5-10 KT) AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THEN LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD LEAD TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (WITH NORTHERLY WINDS)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE THAT THREAT DIMINISHES LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS
WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN 5-
8 FT FOR MOST OF TODAY AND 4-6 FT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SUB-SCA SEAS RETURN BY EARLY TUE AM AND GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A SIMILAR DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
CLIMATE
NORFOLK DID NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING YESTERDAY, WHICH MARKS 5
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS THE LONGEST STRETCH
SINCE JAN 8-13, 1981 (6 DAYS). NORFOLK HAS ALREADY REACHED
FREEZING AS OF NOON TODAY, SO THAT STREAK LOOKS TO BE BROKEN
TODAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...LKB/MAM
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