396
FXUS61 KAKQ 021918
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND MAIN DISCUSSION. IN GENERAL, PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES N OF RICHMOND TO SALISBURY TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY
WED. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA INTO NE NC FOR THE TAIL END OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WED AFTN AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES
TOMORROW, THOUGH REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE ISSUES PERSIST
TONIGHT.
2) A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
3) ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES
TOMORROW, THOUGH REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE ISSUES PERSIST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
W-SW. DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE ALLOWED WIND CHILL VALUES TO
RECOVER A BIT, AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, A MODEST WARM-UP HAS
ENSUED ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. 19Z OBS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION, SLIGHTLY COLDER WHERE THE
DEEPER SNOWPACK LINGERS ACROSS THE NE NC AND FAR SE VA.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF
REFREEZING OF SNOWMELT AND LINGERING ICE. AN SPS FOR BLACK ICE
MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. LOOK FOR LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. WITH MINIMAL/RELAXING WINDS, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT, AND NO COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE MODERATING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD FEEL
PRACTICALLY SUMMER-LIKE AFTER THE PAST TEN DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO VEER
AROUND TO THE W-SW. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY, WITH
A MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY TO START. HOWEVER, SKIES WILL START TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN FROM
THE NW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND/OR DISPLACED. SOME VERY LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING, OR MORE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUES EVENING FROM THE
W. AREAS MAINLY NNE OF RICHMOND COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING, THOUGH AS MID-LEVEL DRYING
ENSUES, THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION LEFT.
THE FRONT AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED. 12Z MODELS REMAIN A BIT BULLISH TO
DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
SECOND BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE US-58/158
CORRIDOR ACROSS S VA AND NE NC, THOUGH AGAIN, THE TREND IS A
FLATTER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS, WINTRY IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE QUICK DURATION, LIMITED MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES.
TAKING A HOLISTIC APPROACH THAT COVERS BOTH SYSTEMS, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL NOT OVERLY
EXCITED WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, SHOWING LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. GEPS/GEFS/EPS NOW SHOWING < 20%
PROBS FOR 1" THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED UPWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA INTO NE NC
FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" ARE IN THE 50-60% RANGE FOR THE GEPS
(CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) AND 30-50% EURO ENS, WITH THE GEFS UP TO
20-40%. PROBS FOR 3" HAVE TRENDED UP TO ~20-30 FOR THE GEPS AND
EPS. CERTAINLY NOT A SURE THING AT THIS STAGE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FASTER, FLATTER TREND...BUT SOMETHING
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION, A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF
THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH MAINLY DRY!) WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. APART FROM SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA, MAINLY CLEAR/SKC TODAY
AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST DIMINISH WITH THE
RELAXING GRADIENT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING/WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AND A PERIOD OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY SE TERMINALS WED EVENING THROUGH
THU MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
- LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH LOW-END SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT,
THOUGH REMAIN ELEVATED TO 15-20 KT 10-20 NM FROM SHORE ON THE OCEAN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY EXPIRED AT 1 PM, WITH
SCAS CONTINUING ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. IN FACT,
BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE OF SRN VA AND NC ARE STILL REPORTING A 6-
9 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY 5-10 KT) AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SEAS AND WAVES IN THE BAY WILL ALSO
DIMINISH FURTHER. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
LEAD TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (WITH NORTHERLY WINDS) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING
SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO THIS EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI/SW
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