382
FXUS61 KAKQ 030826
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES AND MAIN DISCUSSION. IN GENERAL,
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES N OF RICHMOND TO SALISBURY TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TODAY, BUT A WEAK SYSTEM
COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD, WITH A 50-75 MILE WIDE BAND
OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL VA TO NORTHERN NC.
AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS BAND
(IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE) IS IN FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST VA AND NE NC.
3) ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TODAY, BUT A
WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO
THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT.
THE MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS CONTINUES TODAY WITH WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL FEEL
PRACTICALLY SUMMER-LIKE AFTER THE PAST TEN DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF SNOW/ICE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD 0.01-0.10" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS LIKELY TONIGHT-
EARLY WED, ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR > 0.10" ARE 20-30% AT BEST ACROSS THE
AREA. P-TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA INITIALLY,
WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW AT THE ONSET (LIKELY BETWEEN
10 PM-1 AM) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOUISA-COLONIAL BEACH-OCEAN CITY
LINE. OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE MID-LEVEL DRYING ENSUES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 4-8 AM WED
AM AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. AREAS MAINLY NNE OF
RICHMOND COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2" NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE IN A REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO. THOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
TONIGHT AND ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR AN INCH REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 10-30%.
WITH LOW DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH, THE SNOW COULD CAUSE
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IF AT LEAST 0.5-1" FALLS. CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF 1"+ TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD, WITH A 50-75
MILE WIDE BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL VA TO
NORTHERN NC. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THIS BAND (IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE) IS IN FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST VA AND NE NC.
THE FRONT FROM THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BECOMES (TEMPORARILY) SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED.
ANOTHER TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY AM. IF THAT TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CAN
AMPLIFY ENOUGH, A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE PRECIP
IS S OF I-64 AND E OF I-95. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WED (WITH A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA EXPECTED WED
EVENING/NIGHT). HIGHS WED WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER
30S. SO WHILE PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BE RAIN DURING THE AFTN, IT
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS (INCLUDING NE NC) FROM N-
S WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF THAT SHORTWAVE DOES BECOME AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH, A NARROW ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD TRAVERSE THE
AREA AND COULD LEAD TO A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F BY
WED NIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP IS FALLING (GUIDANCE SHOWS COLDER TEMPS
DURING THE PRECIP BUT OFTEN OVERESTIMATES THAT INITIAL PUSH OF
STRONGER CAA). THEREFORE, 1-2" COULD DEFINITELY FALL IN A 50-75 MILE
WIDE BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL VA AND NORTHERN NC. THE 00Z/03
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50% PROBS FOR 1" OF
SNOW WITH 10-20% PROBS FOR 3" ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. SOME
OF THE CAMS HAVE COME IN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WED NIGHT (AND HAVE 1-2" AMOUNTS IN THE RIC
METRO/PENINSULAS). AS FOR THE FORECAST, HAVE GONE WITH THE A BLENDED
APPROACH SHOWING AMOUNTS JUST ABOVE 1" ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC. OF COURSE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS. ALSO, A SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE COULD
EASILY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NO SNOW ANYWHERE AND 2"+. SO IT'S
STILL NOT A SURE THING ATTM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL USHER IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
(THOUGH MAINLY DRY!) WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEFORE THICKENING AND LOWERING
THIS AFTN/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE. THAT SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT SBY BETWEEN 04-10Z,
WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT RIC, AND MAINLY
RAIN IN SE VA/NE NC. CIGS DROP TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT,
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 09-12Z WED. LIGHT/CALM WINDS BECOME
WSW 5-10 KT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
SUB-VFR CIGS LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON WED (THOUGH SBY
COULD RISE TO VFR) AS IT TEMPORARILY DRIES OUT. A SECONDARY
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY TO
PHF/ORF/ECG) AND ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. VFR THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 7 AM DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 4-5 FT. AS SUCH, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCAS UNTIL 7 AM FOR
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SW/W 5-12 KT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY, BECOMING S/SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WED
MORNING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG IT. SOME OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER THAN THE FIRST, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER CAA ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. AS SUCH, EXPECT NNE 15-20 KT WINDS WED TO BECOME N 15-25 KT
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE PROB FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
WAS 50-80% ACROSS THE CHES BAY THU WITH THE PROB FOR 25 KT GUSTS 65-
90% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
WILL NOTE THAT SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE CAA IS. SEAS ALSO
BUILD TO 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY. AS
SUCH, SCAS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON WED INTO WED NIGHT WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY. APART FROM THE RAIN/SNOW MIX, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS IF WINDS TREND HIGHER. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS,
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING SPRAY WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NW WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 25-30+ KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS WERE 45-75% ACROSS
THE CHES BAY AND 60-95% (LOCALLY HIGHER) ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND 35-45% ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS) CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT TO SCA LEVEL AS THE CAA
SLOWLY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPS, LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS RECENT OBS
SHOWING WATER TEMPS AROUND 32-34F ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND 33-35F
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN
FREEZING SPRAY TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT AND 5-7
(POTENTIALLY HIGHER) RESPECTIVELY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, THE WATER LEVELS OF THE CURRITUCK SOUND CONTINUE TO SHOW
VERY LOW WATERS LEVELS WITH SOME GAUGES SHOWING MORE THAN TWO FEET
BELOW NORMAL WATER LEVELS. GIVEN THE VERY LOW WATER LEVELS AND NO
IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS, HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
NOTE THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN LONGER, HOWEVER, WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE HOW WATER LEVELS LOOK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXTENDING IT ANY MORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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