783
FXUS61 KAKQ 032038
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING
A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION (LOCALLY UP TO 1") FROM LOUISA COUNTY
TO THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
2) ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH A 50-75 MILE
WIDE BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE SOMEWHERE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO NE NC.
3) ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, BUT A WEAK
SYSTEM COULD BRING A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION (LOCALLY UP TO 1")
FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL, WITH A FLAT FLOW ALOFT
HAS ALLOWED FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN. CLOUDS HAVE
INCREASED AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-
MS AND TN/OH VALLEY, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY SO FAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH,
AND LOWER 40S NORTH. THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST 10 DAYS OR SO. THE SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING SOME
VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING, BUT THIS SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH.
WHILE A WIDESPREAD 0.01-0.10" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS
LIKELY TONIGHT- EARLY WED, ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR > 0.10" REMAIN
LOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND SFC WET BULBS SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA INITIALLY, WITH
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW LIKELY BETWEEN 10 PM-1 AM OVER THE NORTH.
OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
MID- LEVEL DRYING ENSUES FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 4-7 AM WED AM AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES,
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FROM LOUISA TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH, THE SNOW COULD CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS IF AT LEAST 0.5-1" FALLS, BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE HIGH
RES MODELS, INCLUDING THE 18Z HRRR SUGGEST THAT CHANCES FOR
SEEING 1"+ ARE WELL BELOW 50%; DID NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH
A 50-75 MILE WIDE BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE
SOMEWHERE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO NE NC.
THE FRONT FROM THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BECOMES (TEMPORARILY) SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WED.
ANOTHER TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST
BY EARLY THURSDAY AM. THE TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT SHEARED OUT, BUT STILL AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE PRECIP IS S OF I-64 AND E OF I-95, AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. WEAK LOW- LEVEL CAA WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WED (WITH A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA EXPECTED
WED EVENING/NIGHT). HIGHS WED WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID-UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. SO WHILE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
RAIN DURING THE AFTN FOR MOST OF THE AREA, IT SHOULD CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS (INCLUDING NE NC) FROM N- S WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. IF THAT SHORTWAVE DOES BECOME AMPLIFIED ENOUGH, A
NARROW ZONE OF MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA
AND COULD LEAD TO A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW. WILL NOTE THAT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO
DEPICT A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC WHICH
IS UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN AND NOT SUPPORTED BY A CLOSER LOOK
AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. DID ALLOW FOR IP MIXED IN WITH SN FOR 1-2
HRS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC, BUT DID MENTION ANY ZR AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WED
NIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP IS FALLING (GUIDANCE SHOWS COLDER TEMPS
DURING THE PRECIP BUT OFTEN OVERESTIMATES THAT INITIAL PUSH OF
STRONGER CAA). THEREFORE, 1-2" COULD DEFINITELY FALL IN A 50-75
MILE WIDE BAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NORTHERN
NC. THE 12Z/03 GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
30-60% PROBS FOR 1" OF SNOW WITH 10-20% PROBS FOR 3" ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. THIS ASSUMES A 10:1 RATIO WHICH MAY BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. THE 18Z HRRR AND RAP HAVE ALSO TRENDED OVER THE
S/SE AS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS
FOR THE FORECAST, HAVE MAINTAINED A BLENDED APPROACH SHOWING
AMOUNTS JUST ABOVE 1" ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC. OF COURSE THIS FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE
TUNED IN THE NEXT 12- 24 HOURS. ALSO, A SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE COULD EASILY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ANYWHERE AND 2"+. SO IT'S STILL NOT A SURE
THING ATTM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY N, IF THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE,
BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH
MAINLY DRY) WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AREA-WIDE, THE SETUP
WILL REALLY FAVOR THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OVER THE NE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S SAT-SUN, AS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
SEE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES WORTHY
OF COLD WX HEADLINES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NE BUT MORE UNCERTAIN
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THICKENING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE.
THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE AT SBY BETWEEN 05-10Z, WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT RIC, AND MAINLY RAIN IN SE VA/NE NC. CIGS DROP
TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY
09-12Z WED. WSW 5-10 KT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE N/NNE AFTER 12Z WED OR SO.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (AND POTENTIALLY VSBY) LIKELY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON WED (THOUGH SBY COULD RISE TO VFR) AS IT
TEMPORARILY DRIES OUT. A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET AND ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
NOTE THAT THE PRECIP EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE, WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS LIKELY AS
GUIDANCE REFINES. VFR THURSDAY TO SATURDAY WITH A STRONG BUT DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINS WEAK, WITH GENERALLY 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
5 KTS OR LESS IN THE BAY AND SOUND. WAVES HAVE PLUMMETED TO 1 FT OR
LESS, WHILE SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT (3-4 FT OFF THE NC COAST).
THIS REPRIEVE FROM WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER
PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS FIRST PUSH OF COLDER
AIR WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND WITH WATER TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE BAY 35F OR LESS, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY SCAS FOR THE TIME BEING. IN-HOUSE PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS OF >18KTS
SLOWLY RAMP UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE BAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
EXPANDING BRIEFLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES FOR
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. WITH THE NW-N
FLOW, SEAS MAY STRUGGLE SOME WITH WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY. APART FROM THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS IF WINDS TREND
HIGHER, THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AHEAD ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED IN
ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR-GALE
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG GALE-FORCE GUSTS CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT
IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
BAY WITH A 70-90% CHANCE FOR >34 KT GUSTS. WHILE WIND GUSTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 43 KTS AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS BETWEEN A 20-40% PROB OF >43 KT GUSTS THE VA COASTAL WATERS, SO
STRONGER GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS RECENT OBS SHOWING WATER
TEMPS AROUND 32-34F ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND 33-35F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME, A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT TO SCA LEVEL
AS THE CAA SLOWLY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES WILL BUILD FROM ~1 FT TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT WITH TOMORROW NIGHT'S
SURGE, WITH COASTAL WATERS BUILDING FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT. WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY, WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-
4 FT (HIGHEST OFF THE NC COASTAL WATERS). AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE
SATURDAY, SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE BAY AND 5-8 FT
(POTENTIALLY HIGHER) ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
GAUGES IN THE CURRITUCK SOUND CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LOW WATER LEVELS
WITH SOME GAUGES SHOWING MORE THAN TWO FEET BELOW NORMAL WATER
LEVELS. GIVEN THE VERY LOW WATER LEVELS AND NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS, HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF WATER LEVELS DO NOT
IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/SW
MARINE...RMM/NB
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