587
FXUS61 KAKQ 040710
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO
PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 1"+
TOTALS, BUT A ~50 MILE WIDE BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO HAMPTON ROADS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH A ~50 MILE WIDE
BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE SOMEWHERE FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR BRINGS SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH A ~50 MILE WIDE
BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE SOMEWHERE FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) HAS BEEN FALLING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, TOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM.
THE FRONT FROM THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BECOMES (TEMPORARILY) SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY AM. THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SOMEWHAT SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP ACROSS S/SE VA AND NE NC FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT. AGAIN, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP
GETS (AND HOW INTENSE IT IS AS WELL). AREAS NORTH OF A LUNENBURG-
PETERSBURG-WILLIAMSBURG LINE LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AFTER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE A NARROW (~50 MILE WIDE) SWATH OF 1-
2" SNOW TOTALS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. IF THAT
DOES OCCUR, DETERMINING EXACT LOCATION IS NOT A SURE THING GIVEN HOW
NARROW WE EXPECT THE AREA OF SNOW TO BE.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL BE ONGOING TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY-OVERCAST SKIES. PRECIP IS EXPECTED MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC DURING THE AFTN-EARLY EVENING. P-TYPE WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 6 PM-2 AM. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS (INCLUDING NE NC) TONIGHT, THOUGH ACCUMS MAY
BE TOUGH TO COME BY CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND (I.E. EDENTON TO
CURRITUCK COUNTY) WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. MOST OF THE MODELS (ASIDE FROM THE GFS/GEFS)
SHOW A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. SEVERAL MODELS STILL TRY TO DEPICT LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC WHICH IS UNLIKELY IN THIS
PATTERN AND NOT SUPPORTED BY A CLOSER LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIP ENDS AND
WE LOSE SATURATION FROM 700-500MB. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLEET MIXED
IN WITH SNOW FOR A FEW HRS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP IS
FALLING (GUIDANCE SHOWS COLDER TEMPS DURING THE PRECIP BUT OFTEN
OVERESTIMATES THAT INITIAL PUSH OF STRONGER CAA). MOST OF THE CAMS
AS WELL AS GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW A BAND OF 1-2" ACROSS FAR SE
VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. THE 00Z/04 GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (ASIDE FROM THE
GEFS) CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-60% PROBS FOR 1" OF SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
3" PROBS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. THIS ASSUMES A 10:1 RATIO
WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE 1-2 HRS AFTER THE
INITIAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, WENT AHEAD
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SE VA FROM
EMPORIA TO NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON/VA BEACH. AND DID NOT
INCLUDE CHOWAN TO CURRITUCK GIVEN THAT TEMPS LIKELY DON'T FALL
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THOSE
COUNTIES. OF COURSE THIS FORECAST COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE EVEN TODAY
GIVEN THE (VERY) SMALL SCALE NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW. ALSO TO
REITERATE, A SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE COULD EASILY
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LITTLE TO NO SNOW ANYWHERE AND 2"+. SO
IT'S STILL NOT A SURE THING EVEN THOUGH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
(AND FULLY EXPECT THAT NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA SEES 1"+
TOTALS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR BRINGS SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-64 (AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA). GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
HAVE A MEAN OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, WITH NO HIGHER THAN 10-30%
PROBS FOR 1" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE IT
LIKELY WON'T SNOW EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH MAINLY DRY) WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL AREA-WIDE, THE SETUP WILL REALLY FAVOR THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS OVER THE NE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S SAT-SUN,
AS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC SEE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES WORTHY OF COLD WX HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NE BUT MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS HOUR BUT DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW AT SBY WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS FROM NOW-10Z, WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE.
CIGS DROP TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 08-11Z, WITH IFR CIGS
EXPECTED BY 10-12Z AT RIC AND SBY AND SPREADING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CIGS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AT ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF SBY, WHICH LIKELY IMPROVES
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS (HIGHEST POPS ARE AT ORF/ECG) AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS
AS A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX AT PHF/ORF BETWEEN 22-01Z BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY 02-03Z. PRECIP LIKELY ENDS AT PHF BY
03-06Z BUT COULD HANG ON AT ORF UNTIL 07-08Z. AT ECG, RAIN IS
EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER 04-06Z. IFR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY IN ANY SNOW THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NE AND
INCREASE TO ~10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINS WEAK, WITH GENERALLY 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
5 KTS OR LESS IN THE BAY AND SOUND. WAVES HAVE PLUMMETED TO 1 FT OR
LESS, WHILE SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT (3-4 FT OFF THE NC COAST).
THIS REPRIEVE FROM WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER
PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS FIRST PUSH OF COLDER
AIR WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND WITH WATER TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE BAY 35F OR LESS, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY SCAS FOR THE TIME BEING. IN-HOUSE PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS OF >18KTS
SLOWLY RAMP UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE BAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
EXPANDING BRIEFLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES FOR
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. WITH THE NW-N
FLOW, SEAS MAY STRUGGLE SOME WITH WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON WED INTO
WED NIGHT WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY. APART FROM THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX, LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS IF WINDS TREND
HIGHER, THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AHEAD ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG CAA EXPECTED IN
ITS WAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR-GALE
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG GALE-FORCE GUSTS CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT
IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
BAY WITH A 70-90% CHANCE FOR >34 KT GUSTS. WHILE WIND GUSTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 43 KTS AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS BETWEEN A 20-40% PROB OF >43 KT GUSTS THE VA COASTAL WATERS, SO
STRONGER GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS RECENT OBS SHOWING WATER
TEMPS AROUND 32-34F ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND 33-35F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME, A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT TO SCA LEVEL
AS THE CAA SLOWLY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES WILL BUILD FROM ~1 FT TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT WITH TOMORROW NIGHT'S
SURGE, WITH COASTAL WATERS BUILDING FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-5 FT. WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY, WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-
4 FT (HIGHEST OFF THE NC COASTAL WATERS). AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE
SATURDAY, SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE BAY AND 5-8 FT
(POTENTIALLY HIGHER) ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
GAUGES IN THE CURRITUCK SOUND CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LOW WATER LEVELS
WITH SOME GAUGES SHOWING MORE THAN TWO FEET BELOW NORMAL WATER
LEVELS. GIVEN THE VERY LOW WATER LEVELS AND NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS, HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF WATER LEVELS DO NOT
IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ087-092-093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-638.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM/NB
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