907
FXUS61 KAKQ 042048
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR TONIGHT, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE PENINSULA, BUT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT IS STARTING TO
APPEAR QUITE MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOR TONIGHT, SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR
INTERIOR NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH (BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE PENINSULA).
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER INFLUX
OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
3) WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIKELY GOING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE 1ST TIME IN NEARLY 15 DAYS, ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOR TONIGHT, SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR
NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH (BUT HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE PENINSULA).
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE GA/NW
SC, WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES,
RIDGING NE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT, SW FLOW PREVAILS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS MORNING THAT BROUGHT
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL VA HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST, WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
AND APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOW SPREADING
IN FROM THE SW AND HAS FILLED IN ACROSS OUR NE NC COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE 12Z
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL,
PRIMARILY DUE TO TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AMPLIFIED
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A DURATION OF PRECIP SUFFICIENT FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOWFALL UNTIL AFTER ~03Z/10 PM. THE
LATEST HRRR AND MOST OF THE OTHER CAMS FOCUS THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER OR A LITTLE SOUTH, REPRESENTING
THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO SEE ENOUGH QPF AND COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILES LOOK BETTER AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE MAJORITY
OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE COMING TO AN END. DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE ADVISORY FOR THE PENINSULA, BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
TRENDS BEFORE CANCELING THE REMAINING ZONES THAT INCLUDE VA
COUNTIES FROM EMPORIA TO SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF NE NC.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS, NOW MAINLY
JUST SHOWING A TRACE OR LESS IN NE NC. AS PRECIP COMES TO AN
END, THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ONLY 30-32F, DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING A MAJOR
IMPACT. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE MEASURABLE QPF, WITH LITTLE TO NOTHING FOR METRO RIC AND
PTS NORTH. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
N, TO THE UPPER 20S LOWER 30S SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER INFLUX
OF ARCTIC AIR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER DRYING OUT THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR SE SECTIONS OF THE FA, THE NEXT DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND DROP SE FROM HUDSON BAY
FRIDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THR SHORTWAVE STILL SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I-64 (AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE A
MEAN OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, WITH NO HIGHER THAN 10-30%
PROBS FOR 1" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE IT
LIKELY WON'T SNOW EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH MAINLY
DRY) WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION,
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH SOME WIND
HEADLINES PROBABLY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN SHORE IF NOW ALL
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AREA-
WIDE, THE SETUP WILL REALLY FAVOR THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OVER
THE NE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S SAT- SUN, AS SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND INTERIOR NE NC SEE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S. WITH THE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES WORTHY OF COLD WX HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NE BUT WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN
ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIKELY GOING A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 1ST TIME IN NEARLY 15 DAYS, ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEKEND, AND WHAT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
COLD STRETCH SINCE THE LAST 8 DAYS OF JANUARY, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FINALLY APPEARS TO SHOW A BIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE CONUS TUE-WED.
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S, AND POSSIBLE WARMER ARE EXPECTED
AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF VA AND NE NC (WHILE STAYING COOLER ON THE
EASTERN SHORE). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS HOUR NORTH, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. PRECIP STAYS RAIN INTO EARLY
EVENING, THEN WILL START CHANGING OVER OR MIXING WITH IP/SN AT
PHF/ORF BETWEEN 23-01Z BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY 02-03Z.
PRECIP LIKELY ENDS AT PHF BY 03-05Z BUT COULD HANG ON AT ORF
UNTIL 07-08Z. AT ECG, RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
AFTER 04-06Z. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN ANY SNOW THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT. NE WINDS AVG ~10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS IN THE SE OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR
FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY (FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER TO ~15Z
IN THE SE).
OUTLOOK: VFR THURSDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS WEEKEND, REMAINING STRONG INTO SAT NIGHT (HIGHEST AT
SBY).
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GALE
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN STORM CONDITIONS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY, WITH THE INITIAL
PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT NOT THAT STRONG. ANOTHER
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK
SOUND WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD ANOTHER STRONG FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH VERY
GOOD CAA EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY, SOLID PRESSURE RISES
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS SATURDAY MORNING TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO GALE-FORCE ON SATURDAY,
WITH STRONG GALE-FORCE TO NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
CURRENT IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE BAY WITH A 70-95% CHANCE FOR >34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS OF >48 KTS WAS LOW, SO WENT WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS RECENT OBS
SHOWING WATER TEMPS AROUND 32-34F ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND 33-35F
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME, A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY, THOUGH IF WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT TO SCA LEVEL AS THE CAA SLOWLY DIMINISHES.
HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES WILL BUILD 2-3 FT WITH TONIGHT'S SURGE, WITH COASTAL WATERS
BUILDING FROM 2-4 FT TO 3-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS). WAVES SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY, WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT (HIGHEST OFF THE NC COASTAL WATERS). AS WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY, SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN
THE BAY AND 6-9 FT (POTENTIALLY HIGHER) ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ087-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-638-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ633-635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM/NB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page