172
FXUS61 KAKQ 060854
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SNOW (<1") HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SATURDAY. A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE WITH
WIND ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VA TIDEWATER AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SE VA AND NE
NC FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH EXTREME COLD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
3) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TODAY, PUSHING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE REGION FOR ASCENT FOR THIS SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM. AS
SUCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING SE INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW, THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE INITIALLY MILD (FOR SNOW)
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-64 AND LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH. AS SUCH, PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST (LIKELY REMAINING
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). HOWEVER, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, AS SOON AS PRECIP SATURATES
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, TEMPS WILL DROP TO 32-35F AS THE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE REACHED AND COLDER AIR FROM ALOFT FILTERS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL NOTE THAT EVEN WITH DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
PULLING DOWN COOLER AIR FROM ALOFT, SURFACE TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY
BE MARGINAL, POTENTIALLY 33-34F INSTEAD OF 32F FOR MOST AREAS (BEST
CHANCE FOR 32F IS NORTH OF I-64). AS SUCH, SNOW WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO ACCUMULATE (AT LEAST INITIALLY) ESPECIALLY WITH THE GROUND/ROADS
STARTING OFF ABOVE FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS, IF RATES ARE HEAVY
ENOUGH, THE SURFACE CAN COOL TO 32-33F AND MINOR ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW (GENERALLY <1") ON MAINLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACE IS
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO AROUND 0.5" OF
SNOW, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AROUND 1" OF SNOWFALL WITH A HIGH-END
POTENTIAL OF 1.5". THIS IS REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS SUCH
AS THE ARW/NSSL WHICH HAVE KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5"
ACROSS CENTRAL VA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
REGARDING MARGINAL TEMPS, HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL TOTALS <1" FOR NOW.
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY AROUND 12-1 AM. HOWEVER, A FEW
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE SAT MORNING AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH EXTREME
COLD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT CROSSING SAT MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVES CREATE A STRONGLY NEGATIVE 500MB ANOMALY OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO SAT. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW AT 980MB (POTENTIALLY LOWER) BY 00Z
SUN. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG (~1036MB) HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC SAT INTO SUN. AS
SUCH, RAPID PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED SAT. ADDITIONALLY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL BE ABLE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH 50-55+ KT OF NW FLOW AT 925MB. AS SUCH, EXPECT NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT SAT
MORNING, REMAINING WINDY THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS INCREASE TO
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH INLAND. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN VA TIDEWATER AND
EASTERN NC WHERE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WILL NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS
OF THE WIND ADVISORY FARTHER INLAND ARE POSSIBLE IF WINDS
CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT EVENING
INTO SAT NIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH SUN.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND CAA, VERY COLD TEMPS MAKE A RETURN TO THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS SAT BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE LOCAL
AREA (LOWER 20S NE TO LOWER 30S SW). VERY COLD LOWS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
(MOST IN THE LOWER TEENS). GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS SAT, WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON
N OF I-64 AND IN THE TEENS SOUTH. AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA (APART FROM THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT) FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUN. EVEN COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WIND CHILLS
MAY NOT REACH ABOVE 0F DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT! AS TEMPS DROP
SAT NIGHT, WIND CHILLS DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND 0 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING SUN.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F ACROSS SE VA/NE NC,
HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. THE WATCH WAS ISSUED AS OPPOSED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
LATER START TIME (TWO NIGHTS FROM NOW) AND IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HOWEVER, THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO WARNING IN FUTURE UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY, IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK REACH WIND CHILLS OF -5F SAT
NIGHT, HOWEVER IT'S A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH EXTREME COLD
WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THAT TEMPS DROP
AS COLD AS MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED.
THE COLD TEMPS LINGER THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NE TO LOWER
30S SW ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN SAT, EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE SUN NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEKEND, AND WHAT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
COLD STRETCH, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY APPEARS TO SHOW A BIT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE
CONUS TUE INTO EARLY WED. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW
TUE AND UPPER 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT BY AROUND 20Z, REACHING RIC BY AROUND 22Z. CIGS
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR, REACHING RIC AROUND 23-00Z, PHF/ORF
AROUND 1Z, AND ECG AROUND 2Z. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN SNOW ACROSS MOST TERMINALS BY 00Z. VIS MAY
DROP TO IFR WITH ANY SNOW. HOWEVER, ECG AND ORF MAY REMAIN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ALL TERMINALS VFR (EXCEPT SBY) BY 7Z. MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN
AT SBY THROUGH AROUND 9Z. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EARLY SAT MORNING, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOME SW 5-10 KT FRI AFTERNOON, BECOMING NW SAT
NIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN/SNOW.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. GUSTY
NW WINDS (40+ KTS) ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM EARLY SAT
MORNING INTO SAT EVENING. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
AND AT SBY THROUGH SUN.
MARINE
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE CONDITIONS TO LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE
VA/NC BORDER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY INLAND OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE WIND
IS N 10-15KT, WITH GUSTS TO 20KT OVER THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN. SEAS
REMAIN 5-6FT OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS WHERE AN SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT, AND TAPER TO 3-4FT OFF THE VA CAPES, AND 2-3FT FARTHER N.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGING OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
COAST LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL BECOME S TO SW 5-
10KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN, BEFORE BECOMING W THIS
EVENING. SEAS OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 3-4FT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTN. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
LIMITED VSBY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG CAA AND SHARP PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6MB/3HR DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. STEADY AND STRONG CAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF 5-6MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. 950/925MB WIND
INCREASES AND THEN AVERAGES AROUND 45-50KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, AND EVEN REACHES 50-55KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AROUND 00Z/7 PM SATURDAY EVENING. ALL THIS OCCURS WITH VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -16C
OVERSPREAD SSTS OF 2-5C. THIS WILL SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50KT OVER THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR
48KT GUSTS ARE GENERALLY 60-90% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE
VA/NC BORDER AND 40-60% FOR THE CHES. BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. MEANWHILE, 00Z/06 EPS PROBS FOR 50KT GUSTS ARE 80-100% FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND ~60-90% FOR THE CHES.
BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL, THE BEST PERIODS FOR ~50KT
WIND GUSTS WILL BE BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE SATURDAY MORNING, AND
THEN WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THIS,
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHES.
BAY. ELSEWHERE, STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND CHES. BAY. WHILE
THE WARNING ENDS ON SUNDAY MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL ALSO NOTE
THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL, WITH
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER. ADDITIONALLY,
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND, WAVES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8
FT AND 6-11 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE
STRONG NW WINDS THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS
APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND, AND POSSIBLE THE UPPER BAY.
OVERALL, GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ015>017-
102.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ099-
100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
084>086-089-090-093-095>098-520>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-
088-509>522.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
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