328
FXUS61 KAKQ 061841
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SATURDAY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCLUDING BERTIE COUNTY
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH EXTREME COLD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
3) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 135 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE REGARDING SNOW THIS EVENING SINCE LAST NIGHT'S
FORECAST PACKAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TODAY, PUSHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING SE INTO THIS EVENING. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
LIGHT ECHOS IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND SUSPECT PRECIP WILL
START SOON IF IT HASN'T ALREADY. WHILE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW, THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-64 AND LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH. AS SUCH, PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND LIKELY
REMAINING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL DROP TO 32-35F AS THE WET BULB TEMPS ARE REACHED
AND COLDER AIR FROM ALOFT FILTERS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WILL STILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL, POTENTIALLY 33-34F INSTEAD OF 32F FOR
MOST AREAS (BEST CHANCE FOR 32F IS NORTH OF I-64). SNOW WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE INITIALLY ESPECIALLY WITH THE GROUND/ROADS
STARTING OFF ABOVE FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS, IF RATES ARE HEAVY
ENOUGH, THE SURFACE CAN COOL TO 32-33F AND MINOR ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW (GENERALLY <1") ON MAINLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACE IS
POSSIBLE. THINKING ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.5" WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPOT OF UP TO 1" IF RATES DO GET HIGH ENOUGH. THE 12Z SUITE
OF CAMS WERE RATHER UNDERWHELMED AND REALLY SCALED BACK ON SNOW
OUTPUT, SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THAT 1" MARK
ANYWHERE THAN THERE WAS LAST NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY AROUND
12-1 AM. HOWEVER, A FEW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SAT MORNING AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH EXTREME
COLD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT CROSSING SAT MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SAT. AT THE
SAME TIME, A STRONG (~1036MB) HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC SAT INTO SUN. RAPID PRESSURE RISES ARE
EXPECTED SAT AS A RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE ABLE MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH 50-55+ KT OF NW FLOW
AT 925MB. EXPECT NW WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING, REMAINING WINDY THROUGH THE DAY. NW SFC WINDS
PEAK SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 40-50MPH E OF I-95, 50-60MPH ON THE
EASTERN SHORE AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE COAST, AND 40-45MPH IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FA, EXCLUDING BERTIE COUNTY IN NC.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND CAA, VERY COLD TEMPS MAKE A RETURN TO THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS SAT GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS EVEN AS
LOW AT THE UPPER TEENS ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. VERY COLD LOWS ARE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS (MOST IN THE LOWER TEENS). GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS SAT,
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON N OF I-64 AND IN THE TEENS SOUTH. EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY NOT
REACH ABOVE 0F DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT! AS TEMPS DROP SAT NIGHT,
WIND CHILLS DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AND 0 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FA. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS
REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONALLY,
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK REACH WIND CHILLS
OF -5F SAT NIGHT, HOWEVER IT'S A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH EXTREME
COLD WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THAT TEMPS
DROP AS COLD AS MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED.
THE COLD TEMPS LINGER THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NE TO LOWER
30S SW. HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN SAT, EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO
REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY. THAT
BEING SAID, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE SUN NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEKEND, AND WHAT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
COLD STRETCH, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY APPEARS TO SHOW A BIT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE
CONUS TUE INTO EARLY WED. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW
TUE AND UPPER 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN W TO E MID AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, KEEPING RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (ECG/ORF. WITH THIS, CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
IN THE PIEDMONT BY AROUND 20Z, WITH RIC SEEING HEIGHTS DROP AROUND
22Z. CIGS WILL THEN DROP FURTHER TO IFR AT RIC/PHF AROUND 23-00Z AND
ORF/ECG AROUND 01-02Z. SBY WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A FEW HOUR DROP TO
MVFR AROUND 03-05Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 07Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT ARE
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 50-55 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. BREEZY COASTAL CONDITIONS LINGER ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE TO LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED, LEADING TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 1 FT OR LESS,
WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NOW RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. THIS
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH VERY GOOD CAA EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
CAA AND SHARP PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6MB/3HR DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. STEADY AND STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE LATE
AFTN AND EVENING. 950/925MB WIND INCREASES AND THEN AVERAGES AROUND
45-50KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND EVEN REACHES 50-
55KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 00Z/7 PM SATURDAY EVENING. ALL
THIS OCCURS WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -16C OVERSPREAD SSTS OF 2-5C. STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY AND MD AND VA COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT, WHILE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN ALL REMAINING WATERS. ONCE STORM WARNINGS ARE TAKEN DOWN
WHEN WINDS START TO SUBSIDE, THEY WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH GALE
WARNINGS/SCAS. ADDITIONALLY, A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNDER A STORM WARNING AS MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED. WATERS UNDER GALE WARNINGS (EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK
SOUND) HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AS LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE STRONG
NW WINDS THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND, AND POSSIBLE THE UPPER BAY.
AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SEAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BUILD TO 5-8 FT IN THE BAY AND 6-11 FT. SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKE REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
031-032-102.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-509>525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-
088-509>522.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ635>638-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/RMM
AVIATION...KMC/RMM
MARINE...AJZ/NB
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