994
FXUS61 KAKQ 070130
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
830 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL VA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SATURDAY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCLUDING BERTIE COUNTY
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT, USHERING
IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS.
2) WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG WITH EXTREME
COLD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
3) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 425 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR A WIDESPREAD 1-2" SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA (WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3-4"+ IN A PORTION OF THE
PIEDMONT PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT) NOW PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS ENDED, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES INTO SE VA FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS. NOTE THAT THESE AREAS
WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE 0.5" OR LESS AND WERE NOT IN THE
ADVISORY. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL SITUATED WELL BACK TO
THE NW, PUSHING SE INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS, BEFORE DROPPING OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER
TO SUNRISE AS THE ACTUAL ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SET OFF A
FEW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SAT MORNING AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AND UNLIKE WHAT
OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY, INTENSE SFC PRESSURE RISES AND VERY DRY
AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW, ENHANCING DOWNWARD MOTION
AND LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S
SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG
WITH EXTREME COLD WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT CROSSING SAT MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFFSHORE
TONIGHT, DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SAT. AT THE
SAME TIME, A STRONG (~1036MB) HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC SAT INTO SUN. RAPID PRESSURE RISES ARE
EXPECTED SAT AS A RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE ABLE MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH 50-55+ KT OF NW FLOW
AT 925MB. EXPECT NW WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING, REMAINING WINDY THROUGH THE DAY. NW SFC WINDS
PEAK SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 40-50MPH E OF I-95, 50-60MPH ON THE
EASTERN SHORE AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE COAST, AND 40-45MPH IN THE
PIEDMONT. THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FA, EXCLUDING BERTIE COUNTY IN NC.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND CAA, VERY COLD TEMPS MAKE A RETURN TO THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS SAT GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS EVEN AS
LOW AT THE UPPER TEENS ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. VERY COLD LOWS ARE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS (MOST IN THE LOWER TEENS). GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS SAT,
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON N OF I-64 AND IN THE TEENS SOUTH. EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY NOT
REACH ABOVE 0F DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT! AS TEMPS DROP SAT NIGHT,
WIND CHILLS DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AND 0 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FA. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS
REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONALLY,
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK REACH WIND CHILLS
OF -5F SAT NIGHT, HOWEVER IT'S A BIT TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH EXTREME
COLD WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THAT TEMPS
DROP AS COLD AS MODELS SUGGEST GIVEN THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED.
THE COLD TEMPS LINGER THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NE TO LOWER
30S SW. HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN SAT, EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO
REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY. THAT
BEING SAID, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE SUN NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEKEND, AND WHAT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
COLD STRETCH, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY APPEARS TO SHOW A BIT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE
CONUS TUE INTO EARLY WED. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S NE TO MID 50S SW
TUE AND UPPER 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA, BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH VSBYS 1-3SM WILL CONTINUE FOR PHF/ORF THROUGH
~03Z BEFORE ENDING. MENTIONED -RASN AT ECG AFTER 02Z. OTHERWISE,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. LIGHT W-SW WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NW BETWEEN 03-06Z, THEN START TO INCREASE RATHER ABRUPTLY
CLOSER TO 08-10Z. STRONG NW WINDS THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY FROM 15Z THROUGH 21-00Z. GUSTS OF 35 KT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD, WITH 40-45 KT MOST LIKELY AT SBY/RIC (WITH PEAK
GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE AT SBY). MAINLY FEW-SKC, EXCEPT FOR SBY
WHERE IT MAY END UP MORE SCT-BKN THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY EVENING (AND WINDY AT
SBY), BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE
AS WINDY ON SUNDAY, GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED. DRY/VFR,
WITH MUCH LESS WIND MON-TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 140 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE TO LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED, LEADING TO GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 1 FT OR LESS,
WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NOW RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. THIS
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH VERY GOOD CAA EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
CAA AND SHARP PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6MB/3HR DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. STEADY AND STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE LATE
AFTN AND EVENING. 950/925MB WIND INCREASES AND THEN AVERAGES AROUND
45-50KT MUCH OF SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND EVEN REACHES 50-
55KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 00Z/7 PM SATURDAY EVENING. ALL
THIS OCCURS WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -16C OVERSPREAD SSTS OF 2-5C. STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY AND MD AND VA COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT, WHILE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN ALL REMAINING WATERS. ONCE STORM WARNINGS ARE TAKEN DOWN
WHEN WINDS START TO SUBSIDE, THEY WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH GALE
WARNINGS/SCAS. ADDITIONALLY, A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS UNDER A STORM WARNING AS MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED. WATERS UNDER GALE WARNINGS (EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK
SOUND) HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AS LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE STRONG
NW WINDS THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS APPEARS
LIKELY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND, AND POSSIBLE THE UPPER BAY.
AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SEAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BUILD TO 5-8 FT IN THE BAY AND 6-11 FT. SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL LIKE REMAIN 3-5 FT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-509>525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-
088-509>522.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ635>638-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJZ/NB
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