089
FXUS61 KAKQ 072033
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE REPLACED STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIMDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
2) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIMDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE AFTER CROSSING THE REGION
THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WAS DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE PREVIOUS PROGS.
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW 30S TO THE SOUTH. NW WINDS 25-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH HAVE BEEN PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES TO BETTER MATCH
THE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. PREVIOUS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. APPARENT
TEMPERATURE (WIND CHILLS) ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TO AROUND 0 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SHORE AND SE VA AND NE NC (EXTREME COLD
WARNING AREAS). TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO AROUND ZERO FOR MOST WITH 6-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SW WHERE NO
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS N TO THE
LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH RELIEF IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S S
AND SW TO THE LOW/MID 20S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHWEST MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW
(MAINLY MECKLENBURG/LUNENBURG AND VICINITY) LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO SO HAVE POPS
BELOW 20%. WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK AROUND 10 DEGREES N TO THE MID
TEENS S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UNSETTLED PATTERN BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF EXPANDS NE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD, BRINGING A MUCH-DESERVED WARM UP TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S (!!!) S AND SW TO THE MID 40S FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SW WINDS MOVING OVER THE CHILLY CHES BAY
WATERS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED RAINFALL
STARTING WEDNESDAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 40S THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS RANGE ARGUE FOR LIMITING P-TYPES
TO JUST RAIN/SNOW.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM EST SATURDAY...
MOSTLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS HAVE TRANSLATED OFFSHORE. VERY GUSTY ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NNW 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 40-45 KT. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND TOMORROW AM BUT REMAINING QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS
WINDY ON SUNDAY, GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. DRY/VFR, WITH MUCH LESS WIND
MON-TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS PREVAIL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER, NOT AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BLOW OUT OF
THE NW BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KT. WITH WINDS
UNDER-PERFORMING ACROSS THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THE STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THESE GALE
WARNINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AM FOR THE BAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WHILE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (CAPE CHARLES NORTH) STORM WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND
WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 50 KT. THE RIVERS AND SOUND REMAIN
UNTOUCHED AND GALE WARNINGS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE HIGH-END GALES AND LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILING, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
THE VA/NC BORDER AND CHES. BAY. WHILE THE WARNING ENDS ON SUNDAY
MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK SOUND, WHICH HAS LIMITED ICE
FREE WATER ON THE SHORELINE ALONG WITH LIMITED NAVIGATION DUE TO ICE
AND PERSISTENT LOW WATER. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 7 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE OCEANS AND 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGH END SCA LIKELY IN PLACE. BETTER
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ARE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN PLACE. OVERALL, MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>014-
030-031.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ015>017-032-102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-061-
062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-509>522.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638-
658.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/HET
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