828
FXUS61 KAKQ 080556
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
2) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1230 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
PREVIOUS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAIN
UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURE (WIND CHILLS)
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND TO AROUND 0 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SHORE AND SE VA AND NE NC (EXTREME COLD WARNING AREAS).
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS, COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MOST WITH 6-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SW WHERE NO COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS N TO
THE LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH
RELIEF IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOW 30S S AND SW TO THE LOW/MID 20S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAY GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW (MAINLY MECKLENBURG/LUNENBURG AND
VICINITY) LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO SO HAVE POPS BELOW 20%. WINDS WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK AROUND 10 DEGREES N TO THE MID TEENS S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEVELOPING UNSETTLED PATTERN BY MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF EXPANDS NE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD, BRINGING A MUCH-DESERVED WARM UP TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S S AND SW TO THE MID 40S FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SW WINDS MOVING OVER THE CHILLY CHES BAY
WATERS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
RAINFALL STARTING WEDNESDAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 40S THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AND THERMAL PROFILES AT
THIS RANGE ARGUE FOR LIMITING P-TYPES TO JUST RAIN/SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD SEE FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT RIC WILL RELAX TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANY SNOW
LIKELY REMAINS SW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS DIMINISH SUN EVENING
INTO SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON WED. OTHERWISE, A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS PREVAIL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER, NOT AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BLOW OUT OF
THE NW BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KT. WITH WINDS
UNDER-PERFORMING ACROSS THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THE STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THESE GALE
WARNINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AM FOR THE BAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WHILE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (CAPE CHARLES NORTH) STORM WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND
WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 50 KT. THE RIVERS AND SOUND REMAIN
UNTOUCHED AND GALE WARNINGS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE HIGH-END GALES AND LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILING, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
THE VA/NC BORDER AND CHES. BAY. WHILE THE WARNING ENDS ON SUNDAY
MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK SOUND, WHICH HAS LIMITED ICE
FREE WATER ON THE SHORELINE ALONG WITH LIMITED NAVIGATION DUE TO ICE
AND PERSISTENT LOW WATER. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 7 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE OCEANS AND 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGH END SCA LIKELY IN PLACE. BETTER
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ARE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN PLACE. OVERALL, MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ015>017-032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-
509>522.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/HET
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