818
FXUS61 KAKQ 080721
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
2) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND
EASTERN SHORE. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT.
NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS BUT REMAIN
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30-35
MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR MOST, MID TEENS ACROSS FAR
S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FA, AND LOCALLY UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM. APPARENT TEMPERATURE (WIND
CHILLS) DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, 0
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL
AS THE RICHMOND METRO AND POINTS NE, AND 0 TO 5F FARTHER
INLAND. AS SUCH, EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC NEAR/ALONG THE
COAST. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE (APART
FROM THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA WHERE WIND CHILLS REMAIN
5-10F.
TEMPS REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S NE TO LOW-MID
30S SW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE POSITION OF IT (ORIENTED OVER SW VA AS OPPOSED TO
THE LOCAL AREA) ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LIKELY REMAIN TO
THE SW OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH DRY AIR TO
REACH THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS, CAN'T RULE OUT A LIGHT FLURRY
ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF MECKLENBURG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NW
WINDS GUST TO 20-25 MPH FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND E OF I-95 WITH 30-35 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. GIVEN THE WINDS AND COLD TEMPS, WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE THE TEENS ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
THEREFORE, LOCATIONS UNDER EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THIS MORNING MAY
NEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE
WARNINGS END. IN FACT, THE EASTERN SHORE MAY NEED COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO MON MORNING. WILL NOTE THAT
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS OF 5-10F ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A BRIEF WARMUP REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TUE AND WED AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS WARM INTO THE
MID 40S NE TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F SW TUE AND WED. HOWEVER, THIS
WARMUP IS BRIEF WITH A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THU. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A SIGNAL FOR A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH
MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
WED AS A SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO MOVE BENEATH THE RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR
MUCH PRECIP, HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ARRIVES FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING DETAILS
AND PRECIP TYPES AT THIS RANGE WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF POTENTIAL LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONS ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE FRI (GIVEN COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT) WITH RAIN FAVORED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z EPS HAD A
~30% CHANCE FOR 1" OF SNOW ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FA ON FRI.
ENSEMBLES SHOW LIGHT PRECIP FRI (0.05-0.15" OF QPF) WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 0.25-0.5" OF QPF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD SEE FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT RIC WILL RELAX TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ANY SNOW
LIKELY REMAINS SW OF THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS DIMINISH SUN EVENING
INTO SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON WED. OTHERWISE, A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM WARNINGS PREVAIL FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER, NOT AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BLOW OUT OF
THE NW BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KT. WITH WINDS
UNDER-PERFORMING ACROSS THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THE STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THESE GALE
WARNINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AM FOR THE BAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WHILE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (CAPE CHARLES NORTH) STORM WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A BIT STRONGER AND
WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 50 KT. THE RIVERS AND SOUND REMAIN
UNTOUCHED AND GALE WARNINGS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE HIGH-END GALES AND LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILING, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
THE VA/NC BORDER AND CHES. BAY. WHILE THE WARNING ENDS ON SUNDAY
MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK SOUND, WHICH HAS LIMITED ICE
FREE WATER ON THE SHORELINE ALONG WITH LIMITED NAVIGATION DUE TO ICE
AND PERSISTENT LOW WATER. SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 7 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE OCEANS AND 5 TO 7 FT
ACROSS THE BAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGH END SCA LIKELY IN PLACE. BETTER
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ARE BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN PLACE. OVERALL, MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ015>017-032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
061-062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-
509>522.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/HET
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