246
FXUS61 KAKQ 091722
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1222 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN NECK,
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY, AND THE REMAINDER OF NE NC. ADDITIONALLY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A BRIEF WARMUP REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TUE AND WED AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS WARM INTO THE
MID 40S NE TO LOWER 60S SW TUE AND MID-UPPER 40S NE TO UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F SW WED. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST (APART FROM THE EASTERN SHORE) TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW- MID 30S NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. WILL NOTE
THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS REMAINS FOR WED AS A COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS
TREND COOLER IF CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR MOVE IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW MAY HELP COUNTER THE CAA IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH. IN ANY CASE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR WED,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT (RAIN) SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
VA/NE NC (15-25% POPS). ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.
THE WARMUP THIS WEEK WILL BE BRIEF WITH A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THU, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRI
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO DECREASE (15-25% POPS). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING, EVENTUALLY EITHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OR
TRANSFERRING ENERGY INTO ANOTHER LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC SUN INTO MON.
BOTH THE GEFS (GFS ENSEMBLE) AND EPS (EURO ENSEMBLE) FAVOR A MILLER
B TYPE OF SETUP WITH THE TWO LOWS AS OPPOSED TO ONE. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR SNOW LOVERS, THIS APPEARS TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE INTO CANADA WITH LIMITED COLD AIR TO WORK WITH.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THE CURRENT MILLER B TRACK SHOWN ON ENSEMBLE IS
CORRECT, BOTH OF THE LOWS WOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH MORE THAN
A COLD RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME CAD AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. AS SUCH, IT'S
CERTAINLY TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT ANY WINTRY PRECIP. IN ANY CASE, THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH THE EPS NOW
SHOWING MEAN PRECIP TOTALS OF AROUND 1" AREA-WIDE BY SUN NIGHT. EPS
PROBS FOR AT LEAST 0.5" OF PRECIP WERE 70-90% WITH A 40-50% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1". THE GEFS PROBS WERE A BIT LOWER AT 40-60% FOR AT
LEAST 0.5" AND 20-40% FOR AT LEAST 1".
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z/09 TAF PERIOD. WINDS
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SBY
MAY SEE NW WINDS 5-10 KT CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME S TO SW, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
- SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT IN VICINITY
OF THE COAST. A NW WIND OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CONTINUES
OVER THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN, WITH GENERALLY ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE PRIMARILY 6-8FT S TO 4- 6FT N, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CHES. BAY HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 7AM. MEANWHILE, SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH 10AM, AND 7PM FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10AM FOR THE CHES. BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS GIVEN, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, COLD SSTS, AND
PERSISTENT WIND. THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND PORTIONS OF THE CHES.
BAY, ESPECIALLY THE POCOMOKE SOUND HAVE LIMITED DUE TO ICE
COVERAGE.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING S THEN SW.
HOWEVER, MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO COLD OR ICE COVERED
WATER. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEADY MODEST CAA DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE MARINE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
REGARD TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...AJZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page