045
FXUS61 KAKQ 091913
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF WARMUP STARTING TOMORROW AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING SW IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DUE TO THE VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
(30S). LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AREA-WIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID
40S SW TO THE MID 30S NE.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY NE NC). LATEST
DESI PROBS HAVE ~40-50% FOR 0.01" AND ~15% FOR 0.10" OR GREATER
RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE, SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY AM AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS SHOULD HELP TO COUNTER ANY
SIGNIFICANT CAA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 60S AGAIN (WARMEST SOUTH) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NE AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO COLDER WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
POTENTIALLY SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS THE
AREA.
THE WARMUP THIS WEEK WILL BE BRIEF WITH A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE LOW LIKELY TRACKS
INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVER THE LOCAL AREA OR ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE LATEST EPS SHOWS MEAN PRECIPITATION TOTALS ~1.00"
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GEFS
REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER, SHOWING ~0.50" TO 0.75" AREA- WIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF WINTRY WEATHER AT THE ONSET OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY AM, MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT SNOW PROBS ARE DECREASING AT THIS TIME,
WITH THE 12Z EPS NOW SHOWING A ~20-30% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE 12Z GEFS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (~30%) BUT
HAS DECREASED FROM THE 00Z RUN WHICH WAS AROUND 50%. STILL,
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z/09 TAF PERIOD. WINDS
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SBY
MAY SEE NW WINDS 5-10 KT CONTINUING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME S TO SW, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT IN
THE CHES BAY WITH SEAS OFFSHORE RANGING FROM 3-4 FT N AND 4-6 FT
S.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SCA HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7PM BUT MAY NEED A BRIEF EXTENSION SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SEAS DECLINE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME SSW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG THE SURFACE FRONT BY A FEW
HOURS WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MAINLY IN THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS)
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
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