784
FXUS61 KAKQ 101129
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES OF
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY HAVE DIMINISHED.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2.) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3.) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. CHANCES OF A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY HAVE DIMINISHED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO WAA ALOFT,
BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND STILL COULD
DROP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE WHERE CLOUD COVER CLEARS,
MAINLY FROM THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE (AND IMMEDIATE COASTLINES
OF SE VA/NE NC) DUE TO THE VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES (30S)
AND AREAS OF ICE. THE LAST DAY WE EXPERIENCED HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S WAS JAN 23 AND THE LAST 60S WERE JAN 22. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 40S SW TO THE MID 30S NE
WITH SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY, WITH CAMS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS PRIOR TO 12Z/7AM
WEDNESDAY ACROSS COASTAL VA, THEN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION
ACROSS NE NC 12-15Z/7-10AM WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS, VERY LITTLE
QPF IS EXPECTED, LESS THAN 0.1", AND POPS ARE ONLY ~15% FOR
COASTAL VA, AND 20-30% FOR NE NC. OTHERWISE, THE SKY CLEARS OUT
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AM AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS SHOULD HELP TO
COUNTER ANY INITIAL CAA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 60S AGAIN (WARMEST S) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NE AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO COLDER WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONGER CAA ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. 00Z/10 EPS/GEFS
GENERALLY SHOWS TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S N TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F SW, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S. SOME MID
50S ARE POSSIBLE SW IF CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EPS/GEFS SHOW PW ANOMALIES OF
40-60% OF NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY THEN 50-70% OF NORMAL BY
SATURDAY, SO DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY HAVE DIMINISHED.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE LOW LIKELY TRACKS
INTO THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
EVENTUALLY TRACKING OVER THE LOCAL AREA OR ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z/10 EPS DOES HAVE A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GEFS WITH ALSO A MORE
LIMITED FOOTPRINT OF THE HIGHEST PW ANOMALIES. RAIN CONTINUES TO
BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH THIS SYSTEM. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM IS
GENERALLY 0.4-0.6" (HIGHEST S) AND THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND. THE PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING 0.5" QPF IS GENERALLY
50-70% S TO 30-50% N SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CHC OF A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS NW/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE
DIMINISHED AND ARE ONLY 20-30% FOR THE FAR NW (MAINLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES) FROM THE EPS (AND GEPS), AND LESS THAN
10% FROM THE GEFS. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH LOWER TO
MID 50S SE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST AS OF 12Z.
VFR WITH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE,
MAINLY CLEAR FARTHER INLAND, AND A LIGHT S WIND (LOCALLY SE AT
SBY). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LIFT FARTHER TO THE NE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
THE WIND BECOMES SSW 5-10KT TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH LLWS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A ~45KT WSW LLJ CROSSES THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. ALSO, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AT ORF, PHF, AND ECG AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ~5-10 KT.
WAVES ARE ~1 FT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BENIGN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING THE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE NW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHERE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE CHES. BAY,
BUT DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
NEEDING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LAG AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL NOT CAUSE THE WINDS
TO INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NW WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ~20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA ARE LIKELY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE THE LOW
FORMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC
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