349
FXUS61 KAKQ 101946
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASED SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST VA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH QPF REMAINS VERY LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR ANY
WINTRY MIX REMAIN QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS THIS
AFTERNOON. TO OUR W/NW, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH
A SSW-NNE RIDGE AXIS W OF THE REGION. AS EXPECTED, MILDER
TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 40S N TO MID-UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F S. THE TEMPS
ACROSS THE N ARE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST, POTENTIALLY DUE TO
LINGERING ICE/SNOW COVER UP THAT WAY. EITHER WAY, EXPECT TEMPS
TO WARM AT LEAST A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO AT LEAST THE 50S W OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW. COOLER WATERS
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE
40S.
THAT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE
40S, WITH 30S ON THE EASTERN SHORE. THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK, BUT THE LATEST CAMS DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT SLIDES S. WHILE MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED,
PRECIP LIKELY BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FAR SRN VA AND NE NC. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
(30-50% POPS) IS IN THESE AREAS. WINDS BECOME NW LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE BEING POST-FRONTAL, DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, EXCEPT AGAIN IN THE 40S ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONGER CAA ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK
TO 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S N TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F SW, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID 50S BY
SATURDAY AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S. EPS/GEFS SHOW PW ANOMALIES OF 40-60% OF NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY
THEN 50-70% OF NORMAL BY SATURDAY, SO DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY MIX REMAIN QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
A ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
LATE THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS FURTHER SHUNTED OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THOUGH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE 12 EPS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO THE
LOW PLACEMENT AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES OUR AREA. THIS WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. OVERALL,
THE MEAN AND MEDIAN QPF DETAILS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 50TH PERCENTILE QPF GENERALLY
0.5- 0.75", THOUGH THERE ARE AGAIN APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE ENSEMBLE SUITES (THE GEFS IS THE LOWEST OF THE
GEFS/EPS/GEPS) AND LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP REMAINS RATHER
QUITE LOW, THERE ARE NON-ZERO PROBS FOR SOME SORT OF SNOW OR
WINTRY MIX AT PRECIP ONSET SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE 06Z EPS AND DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF APPEARED TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE LARGER GRAND
ENSEMBLE IN SHOWING MORE AGGRESSIVE WINTER WX CHANCES. CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH LOWER TO MID 50S SE. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY LATER MONDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED
LATER MONDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS NO CAA
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. SCT- BKN CIRRUS IS PASSING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SW AT 5-10 KT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF LLWS
AS A 40-45 KT LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS TO THICKEN. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC, MAINLY
FROM 09Z-12Z FOR SBY AND THE VA TERMINALS AND FROM 11Z-15 FOR NE
NC (AND ECG). DON'T EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE
SHOWERS AS RATES SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR (AND EVEN HIGH- END IFR) CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF AND
MOST LIKELY AT ECG FROM 12Z-15Z WED. ~10 KT WSW WINDS TONIGHT
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER WED MORNING.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHES SW FROM PARENT LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY S 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SW AND INCREASES TO ~15 KT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA WINDS IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY TONIGHT BUT LOCAL WIND
PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS PEAK AT ONLY AROUND 20%. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS FROM N TO S WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING
W THEN NW 10-15 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
AND STRONGER WINDS STILL APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS THREAT IS STILL OVER 24 HOURS+ AWAY
WITH SOME DETAILS TO RESOLVE, WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND PERHAPS THE
LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND (WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT) AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR SEAS 4-5 FT
AND GUSTS 25+ KT). HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION, THE UPPER RIVERS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EARLY THURSDAY AM AS WELL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS. THE CONSENSUS
OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE FAVORS BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR
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