476
FXUS61 KAKQ 110834
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS MODEL CYCLE. SOME OUTLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH,
BUT RAIN REMAINS THE MOST FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
2.) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3.) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. ANY SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST,
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH LAGGING BACK OVER THE ARKLATEX.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SW INTO NORTHERN VA. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH A SW WIND OF 5-10 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY TAP INTO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
CAMS DEPICT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE VA BY 10-12Z/5-7AM,
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE SE ACROSS NE NC FROM
ABOUT 12-16Z/7-11AM. HOWEVER, QPF IS STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 0.1" OR LESS. OTHERWISE, THE SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY FROM
NW-SE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO COUNTER ANY INITIAL CAA. TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND W AND SW OF THE
CHES. BAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW AND A WARM START.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES. FOR EXAMPLE WALLOPS ISLAND WAS 37F AT
200AM WITH A LIGHT SSW WIND OFF THE COLD WATER, AND QUICKLY
JUMPED 20 DEGREES TO 57F 25MIN LATER AS THE WIND SHIFTED TO WSW
AND GUSTED UP TO 20 MPH. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, DAILY MAXIMUMS MAY
BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50F DURING THE DAY. THE WIND BECOMES NW 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO ~20 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND LOCALLY GUSTING
TO ~25 MPH FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER
AND SHIFT TO NNE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONGER CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. 00Z/11 EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY, WITH BELOW AVERAGE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING RISING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S N TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F SW,
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN LOWER/MID 50S
(COOLER NE) BY SATURDAY AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S. EPS/GEFS SHOW PW ANOMALIES OF 40-60% OF
NORMAL THURSDAY, 30-40% OF NORMAL FRIDAY, THEN 50-70% OF NORMAL
BY SATURDAY, SO DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. ANY SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
THERE REMAIN SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/11 RUNS OF THE ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS, WITH THE
ECMWF AND CMC SHOWING ONE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH WHILE THE GFS
SPLITS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PIECE SLIDING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WITH THE OTHER BECOMES A CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SE ACROSS FL HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THIS RESULTS
IN A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE
ECWMF/CMC HAVE A MORE ORGANIZED STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRIES
TO PULL IN COOLER AIR FROM THE RETREATING HIGH TO THE NE, WHILE
THE GFS HAS A WEAKER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z CMC IS AN OUTLIER
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, BUT THE
00Z ECMWF DOES CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 00Z
EPS AND GEPS (CMC) ENSEMBLES, THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. THE GEFS MEMBERS BASICALLY HAVE NO INDICATION OF WINTRY
WEATHER. OVERALL, RAIN IS FAVORED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE
ARE NON-ZERO PROBS FOR SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS, SUBSTANTIAL QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. 00Z EPS/GEFS INDICATE A 50TH PERCENTILE QPF RANGING
FROM 0.5-0.75" N TO ~1.0" S (AN INCREASE FROM 24 HOURS AGO),
WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE 0.25-0.5" N TO 0.5-0.75" S, AND THE
75TH PERCENTILE 1.25-1.5" AREA WIDE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE NBM SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO
LOWER 50S SE SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 50-60%. THIS IS
UNREALISTIC ASSUMING RAIN BEGINS TO FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
UNLESS THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING SLOWER. LIKELY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ALONG AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK, WITH 50S CONCENTRATED TO THE
SE OF THE LOW TRACK. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ABOVE AVERAGE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AS OF 06Z WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW. VFR WITH A SW WIND OF 8-12KT. A 40-45KT
LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LLWS
THROUGH 09-12Z. CLOUD COVER QUICKLY LOWERS AND THICKENS BY 09Z,
BUT PRIMARILY REMAINS VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM ABOUT 11-16Z, WITH THE BEST
CHC AT ORF AND ECG WHERE TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED, WITH ONLY A
PROB30 AT PHF. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND DEPICTS
PRIMARILY VFR CIGS. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE SHOWERS AS RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTN, WITH THE WIND BECOMING NW/N 8-12KT, AND STRONGEST AT SBY
WITH A NW WIND OF 10-15KT GUSTING TO 20-25KT. MAINLY CLEAR AND
VFR TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS AS NW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE BEHIND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KT AS A WARM FRONT HAS CROSSED OVER THE AREA PUSHING NORTH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING CAUSING A
SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KT.
SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS STILL APPEAR TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CHES. BAY, TIDAL
RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIDAL RIVERS AND
SOUND MAY BE MORE MARGINAL, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. ALONG WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING, WAVES AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FT IN THE
BAY AND 3-5 FT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. WITH THIS, HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
BEGINNING AT 7 PM FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
AS THE COLDER AIR USHERS IN FROM THE NORTH. REMAINING ZONES
WILL STAGGER IN FROM N TO S BY 1 AM.
BEHIND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, WINDS WILL BECOME BENIGN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION. THEN, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
ON WHEN/WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKS, BUT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC
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