466
FXUS61 KAKQ 112003
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS MODEL CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
2.) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY, WITH A BRIEF LAG
IN THE CAA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS OF 60-65F INLAND, AND 50-55F ALONG THE COAST. THE
STRONGER CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
LARGELY DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEK, DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW BETWEEN ENSEMBLES, WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO SPLITS THE
UPPER TROUGH, WITH ONE PIECE SLIDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS WITH THE OTHER BECOMES A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS FL
HEADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE, THE CMC AND ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ONE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH THAT BECOMES
CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE LOWS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. ANY
OUTLIERS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY OUR NW
PIEDMONT HAVE BACKED OFF AND KEPT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTH WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ANY
SNOW (>0.1") REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20% FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95, WITH 0%
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, RAIN IS MUCH MORE
HEAVILY FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
DIFFERENCES, THE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PW VALUES WILL EXCEED
200% OF THE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 1-1.5" ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS EVENT. BEING THIS FAR
OUT FROM THE EVENT, EXACT QPF TOTALS ARE NOT YET FORECAST, BUT
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME, WITH PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 1+" RANGING FROM 30-50%.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT AMOUNT, THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS FIRE SEASON COMMENCES ON FEBRUARY
15TH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE NBM SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO LOWER
50S SE SUNDAY. LIKELY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK, WITH 50S
CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE LOW TRACK. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1236 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT ECG. THESE LOWERED CIGS
WILL LIFT LIKELY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
SBY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS
MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING. WIDESPREAD
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS AS NW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY AS A SECOND
SURGE OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE
NORTH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE
NORTH, BUT REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA REMAINS WEAK AND THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR REMAINS
FURTHER NORTH. SEAS REMAIN LOW WITH AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY AND
2-3 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR ENTERS
THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KT. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY THE CHANCE FOR
SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WAVES PEAKING AROUND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3 TO 4
FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE
COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF WAVES NEARING 6 FT ACROSS THE THE
SOUTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. DUE TO CONDITIONS DETERIORATING,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR THAT COULD BRING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE
BAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR THE BAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY THERE COULD
BE A POTENTIAL SYSTEMS THAT BRINGS ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, DUE THE SPREAD IN MODELS THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...HET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page