165
FXUS61 KAKQ 260606
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
106 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
INCREASED SOME, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE, TIMING, AND IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAINS LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
3) MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST TO OUR W THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH W/WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS BRINGING RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TO THE AREA, THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VA BUT THESE HAVE GENERALLY MOVED
OFFSHORE/DIMINISHED. WHILE TEMPS WERE RATHER MILD TO START THE DAY,
THE CLOUD COVER SLOWED THE WARMING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER,
NOW THAT SOME SUNSHINE IS FILTERING THROUGH, TEMPS ARE RISING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S (LOCALLY AROUND 60 F)
FOR TODAY'S HIGHS.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC APPROACH FROM THE W. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO AREA THURSDAY BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE MORNING. RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT,
EXCEPT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAINS LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. FOR THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRIGGER WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
RAIN TOTALS, WHICH COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 1", ARE STILL FAVORED FROM
FAR SOUTHERN VA INTO NE NC. IN FACT, A GOOD PORTION OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE PAINTS A STRIPE OF ~1.5" QPF FROM CENTRAL NC INTO OUR NE NC
COUNTIES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED
MEAN, WHICH ACTUALLY SUPPORTS LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2".
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES) ARE A BIT LOWER
BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED UP WITH THE 0.5" AND 1" EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES. LOWER RAIN TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE I-64
CORRIDOR NW OF SE VA, INCLUDING AREAS TO THE EAST ON THE NORTHERN
NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER NE NC (AND THE
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE). THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WHILE
THE RAIN WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURES TO SOME DEGREE, MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S S OF THE
BOUNDARY (OVER NE NC AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND). TEMPS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S N OF THE BOUNDARY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES TO WARM AND LIKELY
NEAR THE 10-25TH PERCENTILES, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE NBM FOR NOW
GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. THE
FRONT DROPS S AS A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE MD EASTERN SHORE).
KEY MESSAGE 3...MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD DOWNWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG THE SC/GA
COAST WITH A LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH LIKELY IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY REMAINS DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE NC AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SE VA. THESE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE, IF ANY,
QPF. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED A WIDESPREAD PRECIP FIELD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE GEFS/GEPS/EPS GRAND ENSEMBLE.
INDEED, LIKE POETRY, THE 12Z NAM INDEED CORRECTED WELL SE. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY GIVEN BUILDING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING AREAS
NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER 50S. FOR SUNDAY, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAN USUAL. AT THIS TIME, WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S N TO LOWER-MID 60S S/SW. THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
EXTREME AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING
FROM THE 40S N TO LOWER 70S S. WILL REFINE THE TEMP FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS EXACT DETAILS REGARDING THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BECOME CLEAR.
THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR WINTRY
WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
SITUATE NE OF THE AREA, WITH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN
PLACE AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS, THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY WX DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SNOW OR EVEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA FOR THE
BEST WINTER WX POTENTIAL WITH THE EPS/GEFS QUITE SIMILAR WITH
REGARD TO SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES. NOTE THAT, AT THIS TIME,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH MORE MINOR/NUISANCE-
LEVEL IMPACTS FAVORED. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING THE LATEST DATA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ANY OF THIS THINKING CHANGE.
BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 06Z/26 TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
MID AND LOWER CLOUDS, WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
TOWARD 12Z. CIGS QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR BY 13-15Z, AND REMAIN
IFR/LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
POSSIBLE AT ECG ~18Z. IFR CIGS ARRIVE LATER AT SBY TOWARD
17-18Z. RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION 10-13Z (16-18Z AT SBY),
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN REDUCED VSBY TO LESS THAN
3SM. A LIGHT SSW WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A A FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. IFR CIGS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG LINGERS INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
- MARINE FOG COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA HAS
ALLOWED FOR SW WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AVERAGING 1-3 FT. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LESS THAN MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SCA HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SEAS HAVE NOT
REALLY EVEN APPROACHED THE 5 FT THRESHOLD IN SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MARINE FOG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY
AREA OF FOG CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE YORK/JAMES RIVERS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BRINGING
THE FOG THREAT TO AN END. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE AND
INCREASE TO ~10 KT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT OFFSHORE. GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/AJZ
MARINE...RHR
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