589
FXUS61 KAKQ 261049
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
549 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME WINTRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
INCREASED SOME, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE, TIMING, AND IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
2) MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
3) WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SE INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TODAY, HELPING TO ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE REGION. THE
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S DUE
TO MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN EASTERN
SHORE, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S DUE TO LINGERING
SNOW COVER AND COLDER CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS. SKIES HAVE BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS JUST
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS THE AREA AND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE. TOTAL QPF THROUGH SUNRISE WILL
RANGE FROM ~0.10" TO 0.25" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES ALONG IT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH MANY OF THE 00Z HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL PAINTING A STRIPE OF 1.00" TO 1.50" ACROSS NE NC INTO
FAR SOUTHERN VA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITY
MATCHED MEAN, WHICH SHOWS A STRIPE OF HIGHER QPF (POTENTIALLY UP TO
2") ACROSS NE NC INTO SE VA. LOWER RAIN TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE I-64 CORRIDOR NW OF SE VA, INCLUDING AREAS TO THE EAST ON THE
NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER NE NC (AND THE
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE). THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
EXPECT A DECENT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT TODAY, WITH FAR NORTHERN AREAS
(ESPECIALLY THE MD EASTERN SHORE) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE MID 40S. ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY MAY BE THIS MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 OR EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S (UPPER
20S MD EASTERN SHORE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD DOWNWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG THE SC/GA
COAST WITH A LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH LIKELY IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY REMAINS DRY FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NE NC AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
SE VA. THESE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, QPF. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY GIVEN BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW-
MID 60S INLAND, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE COAST
A BIT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER 50S. FOR SUNDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPEARS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THAN USUAL. AT THIS TIME, WILL SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S NE TO MID TO UPPER 60S S/SW. THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE EXTREME AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S N TO LOWER 70S S. TEMPS WILL
ALSO LIKELY RAPIDLY FALL IN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE NE WIND. WILL REFINE THE TEMP FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS EXACT DETAILS REGARDING THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT BECOME CLEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR
WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SITUATE NE OF THE AREA, WITH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
REGARDLESS, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY WX
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SNOW OR EVEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL FAVORS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA FOR THE BEST WINTER WX POTENTIAL. NOTE THAT, AT THIS TIME,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH MORE MINOR/NUISANCE-LEVEL
IMPACTS FAVORED. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING THE LATEST DATA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ANY OF THIS THINKING CHANGE. BEYOND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP/
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 545 AM EST THURSDAY...
CIGS LOWER TO IFR THIS MORNING, WITH A MAJORITY OF SITES
BECOMING IFR BY 14-16Z, AND REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT ECG ~18Z. IFR
CIGS ARRIVE LATER AT SBY AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. RAIN MOVES INTO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (16-18Z AT SBY), WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN REDUCED VSBY TO LESS THAN 3SM. A LIGHT
SSW WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AS A A
FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA. IFR CIGS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG LINGERS INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EST THURSDAY...
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
- MARINE FOG COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WELL INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH QUEBEC. WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES SHIFTING AWAY FROM OUR
AREA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN ABLE TO
RELAX SOME THIS MORNING. MARINE-BASED OBSERVATION SITES ARE
MEASURING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS
THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES HAVE
DIMINISHED TO 1 TO 3 FT IN THE BAY (HIGHEST IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY) AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF MARINE FOG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
FOG CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE YORK/JAMES RIVERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST, BUT MAY BECOME MORE DENSE, SO THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED IF OBS SUPPORT IT. THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY THOUGH DUE
TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY THAT WILL ALSO CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE FOG THREAT
TO AN END. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS TO BRIEFLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF DIMINISHING WINDS (10 KT OR LESS) AND BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON LATE SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER,
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...NB
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