449
FXUS61 KAKQ 261944
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
244 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH,
IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MILD AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-SAGGING COLD FRONT IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE GREATEST PRECIP INTENSITY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL VA
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES FURTHER S THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD
ALSO FOLLOW SUIT. RAIN TOTALS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED MODEL GUIDANCE A
BIT TODAY, BUT STILL EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN VA AND NE
NC WHERE AN AERIAL AVERAGE OF 0.5-1" IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL SHY OF 0.5".
GRADUALLY DRYING OUT TONIGHT, THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG COULD
ALSO DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S, COOLEST N AND NE.
THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH SETUP. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR NE NC AND COASTAL HAMPTON
ROADS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY N AND NW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SE, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S AT THE
COAST.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY BE MILD WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES
GIVEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS
SATURDAY GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S, THOUGH WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO FILTER COOLER TEMPS (50S) IN ALONG THE
COAST. STILL AM EXPECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND A LARGE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
OUR CWA. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP SO UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE.
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (AND
SOME WINTER WEATHER). THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO SITUATE NE OF THE AREA, WITH A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
REGARDLESS, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY WX
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SNOW OR EVEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR. THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA IS STILL FAVORED FOR AN
INITIAL BURST OF SNOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PIEDMONT THEN
FAVORED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW UNDER LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INTRODUCED MORE UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO FINE TUNE AMOUNTS, TIMING, IMPACTS, ETC. STILL,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH MORE MINOR/NUISANCE-LEVEL
IMPACTS FAVORED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND THE COOL/WET/WINTRY SYSTEM TO THE BEGIN THE WEEK, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE EPS AND GEFS BOTH SHOW AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH 850 MB AND 2-METER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY THE 70S ARE
POSSIBLE BY THEN. HOWEVER, THERE'S ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY WITH BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SO THIS WARM WX IS DEFINITELY NOT A
100% LOCK AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...
DEGRADED/SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE PRESENT AREAWIDE AS OF 18Z.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALSO PUSHING THROUGH AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR TERMINALS THAT
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR, EXPECT DEGRADATIONS TO IFR SHORTLY, MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF LOWERED CIGS. WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG LEAD TO IFR-LIFR
CIGS AND VSBY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC AND SBY. THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES N-NE ~5
KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. SIMILAR WINDS
EXPECTED 12Z-18Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EST THURSDAY...
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
- MARINE FOG COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA HAS
ALLOWED FOR SW WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AVERAGING 1-3 FT. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LESS THAN MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SCA HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SEAS HAVE NOT
REALLY EVEN APPROACHED THE 5 FT THRESHOLD IN SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MARINE FOG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY
AREA OF FOG CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE YORK/JAMES RIVERS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BRINGING
THE FOG THREAT TO AN END. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NE AND
INCREASE TO ~10 KT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT OFFSHORE. GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-635-
652-654.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
636>638-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...NB
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