131
FXUS61 KAKQ 270757
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) A SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH,
IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 257 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT A DREARY DAY AND BETWEEN 0.10-1.0" OF
RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND START SEEING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE, A FEW ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH SET UP TO OUR SOUTH
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-95 TODAY, WHILE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW (ALBEIT WEAK FLOW)
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 50-55F WITH A FEW PLACES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ONLY SEEING THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S (55-60F ON THE
EASTERN SHORE AND IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA-
BREEZE AND CHILLY WATER TEMPS). SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. A QUICKER FRONT WOULD LEAD TO ABRUPTLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LARGE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS OUR CWA, WHILE A SLOWER FRONT WOULD ALLOW A MAJORITY OF THE
LOCAL AREA TO REACH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES (HIGHEST IN THE
PIEDMONT).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SYSTEM COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ON THE MINOR SIDE.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, SOME OF WHICH BEING WINTRY WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HIGH IN
REGARDS TO POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW
OR EVEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE AREA IS STILL FAVORED FOR AN INITIAL BURST OF SNOW
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PIEDMONT THEN FAVORED FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW UNDER LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP
TYPES AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT, SO WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP MONITORING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO FINE TUNE AMOUNTS,
TIMING, IMPACTS, ETC. STILL, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY
WITH MORE MINOR/NUISANCE-LEVEL IMPACTS FAVORED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE COOLER, WETTER START TO THE WEEK, WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE
HORIZON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A LARGE, ANOMALOUS
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IF THIS SET-UP COMES TO FRUITION,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F. WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS ALWAYS
A CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT OVER STAYS ITS WELCOME AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THINGS AS THIS IS MORE SUPPORTED.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. A MAJORITY OF THE SITES ARE SEEING
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, WHILE SBY HAS BEEN HOLDING ONTO VFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY A MIX OF LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VIS, WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. THEREAFTER,
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY, WHILE
PHF, ORF, AND ECG HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CIGS FOR A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (~5 KT) OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: GRADUALLY DRYING OUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.
- MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAINS VERY LIGHT OUT OF
THE S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY IS STALLED ALONG A LINE
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TANGIER ISLAND EASTWARD TO WALLOPS ISLAND. WITH
STAGNANT WARMER AIR OVER COOL WATERS, MARINE FOG HAS FORMED AND
BECOME DENSE IN A SPOTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/SOUTHERN CHES BAY,
ADJACENT TIDAL RIVERS, AND OFFSHORE (MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
WALLOPS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 8PM FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THROUGH 1AM FARTHER SOUTH.
SOME EXTENSIONS OR EARLY CANCELLATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
FINALLY MOVES SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BRIEFLY TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DIMINISHING WINDS (10 KT OR LESS) AND BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER, BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW/NB
AVIATION...ERI/NB
MARINE...RHR
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