894
FXUS61 KAKQ 280607
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE DECREASED FOR THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. TIMING FOR PRECIP ONSET MONDAY HAS ALSO BEEN
DELAYED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
2) MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SCOURING OVER CENTRAL VA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE
CIRRUS DECK ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN YESTERDAY HAS NOW STALLED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER
FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST ACROSS THE SE (MID-
UPPER 40S) AND "MILDEST" TO THE N AND W (LOWER-MID 50S). LOW-END
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THEREAFTER. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS, FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE. GUIDANCE IS
HONING IN ON THREE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL: 1) NE
NC, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND; 2) PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT W OF I-95; AND 3) THE MD EASTERN SHORE. CONFIDENCE
ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH IN DENSE FOG, SO LIMITED IT TO THE
"PATCHY" WORDING AT THIS TIME.
THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AND DRY. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL
TREND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID 60S EXPECTED INLAND.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, A SEA BREEZE OFF THE CHILLY WATER WILL LIKELY
KEEP THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER AND IN THE 55-60 F RANGE.
ANOTHER GOOD SHOT AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGHER THAN USUAL
DUE TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A QUICKER PASSAGE WOULD YIELD COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE DAY AND VICE VERSA FOR A SLOWER PASSAGE. REGARDLESS, THE
WARMEST TEMPS ARE ACROSS FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY SW OF THE US-460 CORRIDOR) WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER (POTENTIALLY MID) 70S. FURTHER NE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
AND NORTHERN NECK, TEMPS LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S. THE EASTERN SHORE
WILL BE THE LOSERS IN THIS SETUP AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, TEMPS ABRUPTLY DROP INTO THE
40, WHICH COULD BE QUITE THE SHOCK. COOLER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HIGH IN
REGARDS TO POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY
HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP, ALONG WITH LIGHTER PRECIP
OVERALL. THIS DELAYS MUCH OF THE PRECIP ONSET UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL ALSO MEANS THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW, LIKELY FAVORING SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL (31-32 F AT
MOST) FOR MUCH, IF ANY, IMPACT. CORRESPONDINGLY, PROBABILITIES FROM
ALL MODELING SYSTEMS (NBM/GEFS/EPS) HAVE TRENDED DOWN, WITH THE
STILL-AGGRESSIVE GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS OF 12Z. SOME SLICK SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES, COULD STILL DEVELOP
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER THE COOLER, WETTER START TO THE WEEK, WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE
HORIZON. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A LARGE, ANOMALOUS UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. IF THIS SET-UP COMES TO FRUITION, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER
70S BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER STAYS ITS WELCOME AND KEEPS
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AS THIS IS MORE SUPPORTED. A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 107 AM EST SATURDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, THOUGH ECG AND ORF MAY SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE
COMING HOURS. SOME BR DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE BEING AT SBY, SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION REDUCED VIS THERE.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS TO TRY AND CAPTURE THE LOWER CIGS
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE, THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE N/NE, BECOMING
VARIABLE AT TIMES, THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL (WINTRY?) PRECIP FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND
POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NE OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SCAS ARE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, WITH WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ARE GENERALLY NNE ~10KT.
SEAS ARE 2-3 FT, WITH WAVES GENERALLY ~1 FT IN THE BAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ~10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE NNE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NE ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST, KEEPING WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. WINDS BRIEFLY
VEER AROUND TO THE SSE LATE SATURDAY, TURNING OFFSHORE TO THE SSW
AND SUNDAY MORNING ~10 KT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THAT NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY, AND WILL BRING SOME RATHER ABRUPT
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES! SPRAWLING COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, NUDGING A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THAT FRONT, ALONG WITH ENOUGH OF A
COMPRESSING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE FOR QUICKLY INCREASING
N/NE WINDS LATE SUN AFTN THROUGH MONDAY. IN-HOUSE WIND PROBABILITIES
ARE NEAR 80-100% FOR WINDS >18KT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
AND SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA, THOUGH
WINDS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL FOR THE UPPER RIVERS. ON THE COASTAL
WATERS, BUILDING WIND WAVES ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 4-5 FT N AND 5-
7 FT S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WATERS). 5-6 FT SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS WELL
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, BEFORE SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW/NB
AVIATION...ERI/NB
MARINE...MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page