898
FXUS61 KAKQ 282249
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
549 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING MILD THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO ABRUPTLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
2) MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING MILD THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO ABRUPTLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MARINE STRATUS
DRAPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FARTHER INLAND,
STRATUS THAT LINGERED OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS ERODED, LEAVING A MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY
SKY ACROSS THE REGION ON VERY LIGHT WINDS. REMAINING MAINLY
CLEAR INTO LATE THIS EVENING. STILL A DECENT SIGNAL FOR AREAS
OF MARINE STRATUS/DENSE FOG TO RECUR ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE
AND VA/NE NC COASTAL PLAIN.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ABRUPTLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LARGE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS OUR CWA. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, ALBEIT BRIEFLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT, TEMPS ABRUPTLY DROP INTO THE 40S & 50S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, AND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE QUITE THE SHOCK IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKEND'S
SPRING-LIKE HIGHS. COOLER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING. 12Z/28 CAMS (MAINLY RRFS/TIME-LAGGED
HRRR/HREF) HAVE SHOWN SOME SEMBLANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, AS IT DROPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST VA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ACCORDINGLY, WHILE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY,
DID ADD A 20% POP FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-64 TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW AND
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START NEXT WEEK OFF, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND WEDGE DOWN ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. THIS IS
TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A HIGH IN REGARDS TO POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND HOW QUICKLY
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING
THE PRECIP TYPE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ALOFT
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW OR EVEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE PAST FEW MODEL
SUITES, INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z/28 SUITE HAVE DEPICTED THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
THUS, THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE LONG ACROSS THE
AREA, AND PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. DUE TO THESE LOWERING
PROBABILITIES AND VERY MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, MINIMAL SNOW REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
~20-30%. WITH THAT BEING SAID, PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/ICE ACCRETION HAVE COME UP A BIT OVER THE VA PIEDMONT
COUNTIES ALONG US-15. SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE COULD
WELL BE PRESENT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, AND SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD CREATE SOME
SLICK SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN AMOUNTS/EVOLUTION/TIMING AND ADJUST
THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THE COOLER START TO THE WEEK, SOME
WARMER WEATHER IS ON THEY WAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICTING A LARGE, ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S, W/850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BUILDING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE. IF THIS SET-UP COMES TO FRUITION, TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND LOWS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F. BY NEXT WEEKEND, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING
VERY CLOSE TO THE 80F MARK FOR INLAND AREAS. WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE IS ALWAYS
A CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT OVER-STAYS ITS WELCOME AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FORECAST. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THERE IS NOT
MUCH SUPPORT AT THIS TIME FOR A LINGERING COOLER AIRMASS. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 549 PM EST SATURDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TOO HINT AT
ADDITIONAL MARINE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KECG. AT
REMAINING COASTAL TERMINALS, DID INCLUDE SOME LOW-END MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT SBY/PHF, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE AT ORF THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
N/NE, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES, THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR CIGS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BY LATER SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT
ACROSS TERMINALS, AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT RIC/SBY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL WATERS,
LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH, WITH SUBSEQUENT SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT, OFFSHORE TO THE SE. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWS
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. WAVES AND SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY ~1 FT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 2-3 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TONIGHT STILL AROUND 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. MARINE FOG/ LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHES.
BAY AS DEWPOINTS REACH NEAR WATER TEMPS (MID TO UPPER 30S) WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CAMERAS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MIDDLE CHES. BAY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG (~1040 MB), PROGRESSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PUSHING CAA OVER THE WATERS,
AS WELL AS FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE RISES, SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LATEST CAM MODELS TRENDS THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SLIGHTLY FAST, NOW WITH BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSING THE
MIDDLE CHES. BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CROSSING THE NC COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AN INITIAL BURST WITH THE FRONT COULD HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. THE UPPER RIVERS ARE MORE MARGINAL, DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4-5 FT N AND 5-7 FT S, AND WAVES TO 3-4 FT,
PEAKING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THIS, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL
WATERS, LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CURRITUCK SOUND, WITH STAGGERING START
TIMES FROM N TO S BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 5 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEN, BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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