357
FXUS61 KAKQ 020110
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
810 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING S ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS COMMON WITH THESE FRONTS, THEY MAKE MORE
PROGRESS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND STALL INLAND UNTIL
AFTER PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES VARY WIDELY FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE MD COAST, TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC, TO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WELL INLAND. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30F N TO THE UPPER 30S S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
MAINTAINING ONSHORE NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING BELOW
NBM TEMPERATURES AND CLOSER TO MOS NUMBERS GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW
AND INCREASING CLOUDS. AN INITIAL IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE W BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL VA PROVIDED 2M TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD BEGIN AS
LIGHT RAIN AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
TOWARD THE WET-BULB. FARTHER S/SE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL
SHIFT NE MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
SHALLOWING WITH TIME FROM SW-NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH TO THE NE IS PROGRESSIVE. LIGHT SNOW, SLEET,
AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION/ICE ACCRETION
AND THE GFS/GEFS REMAIN THE MOST ROBUST FOR ACCUMULATION AND ARE
GENERALLY CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO TREE TOPS/ELEVATED SURFACE AND SHOULD LIMITED TO LOW
IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A RAPID CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AFTER THE COOL START TO THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS DEPICTING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S, WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IF THIS SET-UP
COMES TO FRUITION (IN WHICH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING),
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F. BY THE
WEEKEND, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING VERY CLOSE TO AND ABOVE THE 80F
MARK FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS WEEK WILL BE THERE FIRST TIME THAT
RICHMOND WILL HAVE SEEN HIGHS >=70F SINCE RIGHT BEFORE
THANKSGIVING. THE LAST TIME THAT 70F WAS NOT REACHED DURING
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER WAS DURING THE 2009-2010 WINTER. WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THERE
IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO LEAVE. HOWEVER, WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE CONTINUED VERY GOOD ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS, THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY, SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS BRING MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (MAINLY N) TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 810 PM EST SUNDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAINLY DRY ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED AND DIMINISHING
SHOWERS W OF KECG TERMINAL. REMAINING DRY OVERNIGHT, AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, AND A NE WIND OF 5-10KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W MONDAY. VFR IN THE MORNING, AS MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN, BUT PRIMARILY AFTER 01/18Z. A LIGHT
RA/SN/IP MIX IS POSSIBLE AT RIC, AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NE 8-12KT INLAND, AND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KT TOWARD AND ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP, PRIMARILY RAIN FOR ORF, PHF,
AND ECG. MEANWHILE, A LIGHT RA/SN/PL MIX IS POSSIBLE AT
RIC/PHF/SBY LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING, BECOMING MAINLY
RAIN AFTER 03-06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE
MON AFTN AT KRIC, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
BELOW 3SM FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY, IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU/FRI.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
- SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN
TIME, NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
PERSIST.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC WATERS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED THIS FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. WAVES AND SEAS ARE AROUND 1 FT AND 2-3 FT, RESPECTIVELY.
A MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT INCREASES WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST CAMS HAVE GUSTS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
AND LOWER CHES. BAY A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER CHES.
BAY ZONE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR
THE MID/UPPER BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES
OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL PUSH IN THE AFTN, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES. NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT N AND 5-6 FT S, AND WAVES TO 3-4
FT, PEAKING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS MAY STAY A BIT
ELEVATED TUE-WED, AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SSW LATE
TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-638-650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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