124
FXUS61 KAKQ 020727
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT, BUT DID ADD A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO THE FAR NW
COUNTIES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. TEMPERATURE HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY MILD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S IN MOST COMMUNITIES THIS
MORNING THANKS TO SOME CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH THAT IS
PROVIDING THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEDGE ITSELF DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THIS CAD ENVIRONMENT.
AS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY, THE HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE IN A TYPICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A FOR POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND HOW QUICKLY THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE
PRECIP TYPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INITIAL IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE W
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL VA PROVIDED 2M TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS TOWARD THE WET-BULB.
FARTHER S/SE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT NE THIS EVENING, WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR BECOMING MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME FROM SW-NE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH TO THE NE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO MODERATE. LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE (ALBEIT, NOT COMPLETE CONSENSUS) THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN OUR LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE
MORE TRICKY IS THE CHANGE OVER TO POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION. WITH THE CAD STILL IN PLACE, HAVE
DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, WHICH PLACES THEM RIGHT AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z
TUESDAY. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, SO HAVE ADDED A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE (0.01") TO BOTH
LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES. WITH THIS BEING SAID, DUE TO THE VERY
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, THIS ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
TREE TOPS/ELEVATED SURFACES, LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. IF
TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN EXPECTED, THERE
COULD MORE IMPACTS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW SO HAVE
STUCK WITH BOTH LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION/ICE ACCRETION AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE CAD MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S BY MID-LATE WEEK,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON THE HORIZON (I.E. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT),
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50F. BY LATE WEEK, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING VERY CLOSE TO
THE 80F MARK FOR INLAND AREAS, WHICH WOULD BE VERY WELCOME AFTER THE
LONG WINTER THIS AREA HAS SEEN. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND SAW 70F WAS
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, AND THE LAST TIME 80F WAS OBSERVED WAS BACK IN
EARLY OCTOBER. THE THREAT OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DWINDLE DUE TO VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE A SYSTEM STARTS TO BRING IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO
THE AREA. RIC AND SBY WILL LIKELY SEE -SN AND/OR -RASN TO START THE
EVENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PHF AND ORF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RASN, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW SO
HAVE JUST KEPT -RA FOR BOTH TERMINALS (AS WELL AS ECG). ONCE THE
PRECIP ARRIVES AT EACH RESPECTIVE TERMINALS, VIS AND CIGS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO MVFR AND AT LEAST CIGS WILL APPROACH IFR BY LATE
TOMORROW EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE NE 8-12KT INLAND,
AND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT TOWARD AND ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THU/FRI.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
- SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN
TIME, NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
PERSIST.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NC WATERS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PUSHED THIS FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. WAVES AND SEAS ARE AROUND 1 FT AND 2-3 FT, RESPECTIVELY.
A MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT INCREASES WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST CAMS HAVE GUSTS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
AND LOWER CHES. BAY A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE LOWER CHES.
BAY ZONE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR
THE MID/UPPER BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES
OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL PUSH IN THE AFTN, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH
TO NOT CHANGE THE HEADLINES. NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT N AND 5-6 FT S, AND WAVES TO 3-4
FT, PEAKING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS MAY STAY A BIT
ELEVATED TUE-WED, AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SSW LATE
TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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