835
FXUS61 KAKQ 021757
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1257 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT, BUT DID ADD A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO THE FAR NW
COUNTIES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. TEMPERATURE HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY MILD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 30S IN MOST COMMUNITIES THIS
MORNING THANKS TO SOME CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH THAT IS
PROVIDING THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEDGE ITSELF DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THIS CAD ENVIRONMENT.
AS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY, THE HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE IN A TYPICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A FOR POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND HOW QUICKLY THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE
PRECIP TYPE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INITIAL IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE W
BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL VA PROVIDED 2M TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS TOWARD THE WET-BULB.
FARTHER S/SE MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT NE THIS EVENING, WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR BECOMING MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME FROM SW-NE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH TO THE NE QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO MODERATE. LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE (ALBEIT, NOT COMPLETE CONSENSUS) THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN OUR LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE
MORE TRICKY IS THE CHANGE OVER TO POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND IF
THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATION. WITH THE CAD STILL IN PLACE, HAVE
DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, WHICH PLACES THEM RIGHT AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z
TUESDAY. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, SO HAVE ADDED A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE (0.01") TO BOTH
LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES. WITH THIS BEING SAID, DUE TO THE VERY
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, THIS ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
TREE TOPS/ELEVATED SURFACES, LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. IF
TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN EXPECTED, THERE
COULD MORE IMPACTS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW SO HAVE
STUCK WITH BOTH LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION/ICE ACCRETION AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE CAD MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S BY MID-LATE WEEK,
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
COOLING ON THE HORIZON (I.E. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT),
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50F. BY LATE WEEK, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING VERY CLOSE TO
THE 80F MARK FOR INLAND AREAS, WHICH WOULD BE VERY WELCOME AFTER THE
LONG WINTER THIS AREA HAS SEEN. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND SAW 70F WAS
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, AND THE LAST TIME 80F WAS OBSERVED WAS BACK IN
EARLY OCTOBER. THE THREAT OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DWINDLE DUE TO VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIP
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO THE AREA, WITH RIC EXPECTING TO SEE -SN
AND/OR -RASN SOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR RIC AND SBY TO SEE
WINTRY PRECIP, BUT PHF COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX, WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS SEEING RA. MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM LOWERED
CIGS AND VSBY WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 20- 22Z ONCE THE PRECIP REACHES
THE TERMINALS, AND AT LEAST CIGS WILL APPROACH IFR BY LATE
EVENING. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ~5
KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
WILL DROP OFF LATER TODAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
OCEAN.
- OTHER THAN SWELL POTENTIALLY KEEPING SEAS 4-5 FT THROUGH WED-
THUS, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS
BECOME SSW AT 10-15 KT OR LESS.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1038 MB), CENTERED
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, RIDGING S INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
NE WINDS PREVAIL, BUT HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING SINCE LAST
EVENING (MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE). SEAS ARE ~5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT THE SCAS ARE OTHERWISE EITHER VERY MARGINAL
OR NOT VERIFYING. WILL KEEP THEM IN EFFECT TO START THE MORNING
PERIOD, AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN WINDS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS THE AIRMASS GETS A BIT COLDER, LEADING TO
BETTER MIXING, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST SLOWLY
EXPANDS N. HOWEVER, WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK PRIOR TO 7 AM, AND
MAY CANCEL THE BAY N OF NEW PT COMFORT EARLY AS THIS COULD END
UP BEING TOO FAR REMOVED FORM ALL OF THIS WITH NORTHING MORE
THAN 10-15 KT WINDS ALL DAY. THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN SHOULD SEE
WINDS AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT AND WAVES INTO THE
LOWER BAY OF 3-4 FT.
THE LATEST NBM AND NWPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SEAS
STAYING ELEVATED TUE- WED, AND HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(ADDITIONAL SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
AS WELL). WINDS BECOME SSW LATER TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE WEEK AT 10-15 KT OR LESS SO OTHER THAN
THE ELEVATED SEAS, BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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