026
FXUS61 KAKQ 022015
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, WITH LESS THAN 0.5"
ACROSS THE AREA NOW, AS WELL AS DECREASED ICE AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY WITH A
STRONG ~1040 MB HIGH TO THE NE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TODAY, THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ARE IMPORTANT
IN DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPE. CAD WEDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY BELOW AVERAGE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES HELP WINTRY WEATHER
FORM ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP HAS BEGUN ACROSS W AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE E. A FEW REPORTS OF A MIX
OF RAIN/SLEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY START AS RAIN
AND BECOME SNOW AS THE TEMPERATURES TRENDS TOWARD THE WET-BULB. WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS WON'T BE ABLE
TO FORM UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT, IF ANY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING OF ACCUMULATION IS AROUND MIDNIGHT, WHEN TEMPERATURES REACH
NEAR FREEZING. ALTHOUGH, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 33-35
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WHICH WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECREASED, NOW WITH ONLY
THE MD EASTERN SHORE BEING THE ONLY REGION THAT MAY HAVE
ACCUMULATION, AND ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONALLY TRENDED DOWN WITH FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA, WITH
ICE ACCRETIONS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE TREE TOPS/ELEVATED AND LITTLE
TO NO IMPACTS. IF TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EXPECTED, THERE COULD MORE IMPACTS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS VERY LOW SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATION AND NO ICE
ACCRETION AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE CAD MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE, A LARGE UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN US MID
WEEK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR BACKDOOR FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 70S (LOWER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE) WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. BY LATE WEEK, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING VERY CLOSE TO
THE 80F MARK FOR INLAND AREAS, WHICH WOULD BE VERY WELCOME AFTER THE
LONG WINTER THIS AREA HAS SEEN. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND SAW 70F WAS
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, AND THE LAST TIME 80F WAS OBSERVED WAS BACK IN
EARLY OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY, THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MARCH 15TH. A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIP
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO THE AREA, WITH RIC EXPECTING TO SEE -SN
AND/OR -RASN SOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR RIC AND SBY TO SEE
WINTRY PRECIP, BUT PHF COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX, WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS SEEING RA. MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM LOWERED
CIGS AND VSBY WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 20- 22Z ONCE THE PRECIP REACHES
THE TERMINALS, AND AT LEAST CIGS WILL APPROACH IFR BY LATE
EVENING. LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ~5
KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS WELL AS OFFSHORE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND.
- OTHER THAN SWELL POTENTIALLY KEEPING SEAS 4-5 FT THROUGH WED, RELATIVELY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME SSW AT 10- 15
KT OR LESS.
STRONG (1035+MB) HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH AND WEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN TYPICAL CAD FASHION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS
NOTED NEAR SHORE WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ENHANCED NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN MODEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (BAY/OCEAN)
AT 10-15 KT WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE SEEN 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BEEN MAINLY 4-5 FT WITH 6+ FOOTERS NOTED WELL
OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH 3-4 FT NEAR THE
MOUTH.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE CHES BAY,
LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF WALLOPS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOSES
DEFINITION THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER RIGHT NEAR SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED 5 FT SEAS FROM
THE CAPE CHARLES LIGHT SOUTHWARD. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OPTED NOT TO EXTEND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE (~12 HOURS) PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THEREAFTER, SOME E AND SE SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP
SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT OR LESS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-638-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...LKB/RHR
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