522
FXUS61 KAKQ 022348
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
648 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, WITH LESS THAN 0.5"
ACROSS THE AREA NOW, AS WELL AS DECREASED ICE AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY WITH A
STRONG ~1040 MB HIGH TO THE NE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A CAD REGIME
HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA, AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVED IN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WAS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH A FEW SLEET
PELLETS MIXED IN. HOWEVER, THE MD EASTERN SHORE SAW A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING (AND EVEN A
BIT BELOW FREEZING IN DORCHESTER COUNTY). ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 0.5" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN DORCHESTER COUNTY ON GRASSY
SURFACES (NOT ROADS), WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING AT BEST
ELSEWHERE. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
ADDITIONALLY TRENDED DOWN WITH FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA, WITH
ICE ACCRETIONS LIKELY LIMITED TO THE TREE TOPS/ELEVATED SURFACES
WITH NO ROAD IMPACTS. ANY CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOUISA, FLUVANNA, AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE CAD MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE, A LARGE UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN US MID
WEEK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR BACKDOOR FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 70S (LOWER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE) WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. BY LATE WEEK, SOME GUIDANCE IS EDGING VERY CLOSE TO
THE 80F MARK FOR INLAND AREAS, WHICH WOULD BE VERY WELCOME AFTER THE
LONG WINTER THIS AREA HAS SEEN. THE LAST TIME RICHMOND SAW 70F WAS
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, AND THE LAST TIME 80F WAS OBSERVED WAS BACK IN
EARLY OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY, THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MARCH 15TH. A SERIES OF
WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY LOWERING THIS EVENING WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
THE TERMINALS (WITH -RASN AT SBY). IT IS STILL MVFR TO VFR AT
THIS HOUR, BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES. PRECIP CHANGES FROM A MIX TO
ALL RAIN AT SBY BY 01-03Z. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
TUESDAY WITH A CAD REGIME IN PLACE, WITH IFR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN RIC/SBY AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN IN SE
VA/NE NC BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY SCATTERING OUT.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME SW.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS WELL AS OFFSHORE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND.
- OTHER THAN SWELL POTENTIALLY KEEPING SEAS 4-5 FT THROUGH WED, RELATIVELY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME SSW AT 10- 15
KT OR LESS.
STRONG (1035+MB) HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH AND WEST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN TYPICAL CAD FASHION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS
NOTED NEAR SHORE WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR ENHANCED NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN MODEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (BAY/OCEAN)
AT 10-15 KT WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE SEEN 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT. SEAS HAVE BEEN MAINLY 4-5 FT WITH 6+ FOOTERS NOTED WELL
OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH 3-4 FT NEAR THE
MOUTH.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE CHES BAY,
LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF WALLOPS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOSES
DEFINITION THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER RIGHT NEAR SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED 5 FT SEAS FROM
THE CAPE CHARLES LIGHT SOUTHWARD. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OPTED NOT TO EXTEND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
CONSIDERABLE (~12 HOURS) PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS. THEREAFTER, SOME E AND SE SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP
SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT OR LESS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-638-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/RHR
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