714
FXUS61 KAKQ 031208
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
708 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
HOVER AT ~32F THROUGH ~9 AM ACROSS THE FAR NW, BUT THE THREAT
FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IS TOO LOW FOR WINTER HEADLINES.
2) A SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED WARM STRETCH OF WX WILL PREVAIL FROM MID
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HOVER AT ~32F THROUGH ~9 AM ACROSS THE FAR NW, BUT
THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IS TOO LOW FOR WINTER
HEADLINES.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO THE S OF NOVIA SCOTIA, RIDGING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUES TO KEEP A
CAD REGIME OVER THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ONGOING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED RIGHT AT ~32 F ACROSS THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 33-35 F
RANGE ACROSS RIC METRO AND MOST OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AND
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. GIVEN
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND VERY MARGINAL TEMPERATURES (~32F AS
OPPOSED TO THE UPPER 20S OR COLDER), WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
WINTER WX HEADLINES AS ICE ACCRETIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE TREE TOPS/ELEVATED SURFACES WITH MINIMAL TO NO ROAD IMPACTS.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SOME LOCAL SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NW. OTHERWISE, HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
NBM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING (AND FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, GIVEN THE CAD SETUP WHERE THE NBM AND MANY
MODELS STRUGGLE. OVERALL, RAIN WILL TAPER TO DRIZZLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE FAR N/NE WHERE
LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES INTO LATE MORNING. REMAINING OVERCAST,
COOL, DAMP, AND DREARY AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING. DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTN, THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AND NE NC, AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SW. THIS SCENARIO
IS STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER, SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
LIKELY STAY OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BLENDED
IN SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS WHICH ARE SUPERIOR IN THIS TYPE OF
SETUP, UNDERCUT THE NBM BY AS MUCH AS 5-7 DEGREES OVER THE
PIEDMONT, AND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SE (THOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF MUCH OF CENTRAL VA STRUGGLES TO GET OUT OF THE
40S). ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH. MILDER TONIGHT WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES;
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 F.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED WARM STRETCH OF WX WILL
PREVAIL FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WX PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST WED, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AND AMPLIFYING OFF THE SE COAST THU-FRI. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PASSING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND LATE THU/FRI, WHICH
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS TO BRING A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
EASTERN SHORE LATE FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT WASHING OUT EARLY SAT. FOR
NOW, FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE NBM WHICH HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S WED (COOLEST N/NE), THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S W OF CHES BAY THU-SAT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN SHORE (POSSIBLY A LOT
COOLER IF THAT BACKDOOR DOES MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH FRI-SAT). A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS BRING LOW- END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THU-THU
NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE BULK OF COLD AIR STAYS WELL NORTH, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...
MAINLY IFR-LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. ALL MAIN TERMINALS ARE NOW
JUST PLAIN RAIN OR DRIZZLE. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4SM AT SOME
OF THE SE TERMINALS AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. EVEN AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS, CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE WITH A CAD REGIME IN PLACE, WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY IN RIC/SBY, AND LASTING UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
IN SE VA/NE NC BEFORE RISING TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY SCATTERING
OUT LATE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME SW. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (ASIDE FROM SOME LOCALIZED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EARLY WED AM). A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY
SBY). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S TO SW, BUT WILL
PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO THE E OR SE ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN
SHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE E-NE
NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE LATE FRI INTO SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 4-5 FT SEAS.
- MARINE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE (OUT OF THE NE), BUT
ARE 15 KT OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FT. THE LOW-LEVEL
COOL/CLOUDY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY SCOUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH GETS PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS COULD
LEAD TO MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING <1 NM VISIBILITIES SO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TODAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE S-SW, BUT MAY
OCCASIONALLY TURN TO THE E-SE, SUCH AS ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION.
THE WAVE/SEA FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY. NUMERICAL WAVE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ~8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TODAY, POTENTIALLY
INCREASING SEAS TO ~5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS (FROM
CAPE CHARLES NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE). SINCE OBSERVATIONS ARE VERY
LIMITED N OF CAPE CHARLES, IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE SEAS. REGARDLESS, THIS WAS THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THE NORTHWARD SCA EXPANSION THERE. OTHERWISE, SEAS
AVERAGE 2-4 FT BEYOND TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-2 FT, EXCEPT 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SW
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