804
FXUS61 KAKQ 031943
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEDGE SLOWLY ERODES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW AND PEAKING
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE.
3) SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEDGE SLOWLY ERODES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS AFTERNOON, A BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, COOL TEMPERATURES, LOW CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FOG/LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE N/NW PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO NE NC, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
OUT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MILDER TONIGHT WITH S/SW
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY N/NW,
WILL LIKELY SEE STEADY OR GRADUALLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO NE NC, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY BECOMING
DENSE IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW
AND PEAKING FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US STARTING TOMORROW AND
PEAKING LATER FRIDAY. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY STILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE
SW LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW, WILL SHOW HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE S/SW. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY,
THOUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE
DUE TO THE COLD WATERS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY REACH THE 80S FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW THURSDAY-FRIDAY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY), WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-50% POPS) ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY STALLS OR DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING A HEAVY RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO 0.3"
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 4-5 FT SEAS.
- MARINE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE (OUT OF THE NE), BUT
ARE 15 KT OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5 FT. THE LOW-LEVEL
COOL/CLOUDY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY SCOUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH GETS PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT. THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS COULD
LEAD TO MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING <1 NM VISIBILITIES SO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TODAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE S-SW, BUT MAY
OCCASIONALLY TURN TO THE E-SE, SUCH AS ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION.
THE WAVE/SEA FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY. NUMERICAL WAVE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ~8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TODAY, POTENTIALLY
INCREASING SEAS TO ~5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS (FROM
CAPE CHARLES NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE). SINCE OBSERVATIONS ARE VERY
LIMITED N OF CAPE CHARLES, IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE SEAS. REGARDLESS, THIS WAS THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THE NORTHWARD SCA EXPANSION THERE. OTHERWISE, SEAS
AVERAGE 2-4 FT BEYOND TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-2 FT, EXCEPT 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-631-
635-650-652-654.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ632>634-636>638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW
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