204
FXUS61 KAKQ 040258
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION UPDATE. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AIR WEDGE AIRMASS SLOWLY ERODES THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW AND PEAKING
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE.
3) SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 955 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEDGE SLOWLY ERODES THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
ONE LAST ROUND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
OVER THE REGION, WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION, AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS. MILDER
TONIGHT WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY W/NW, WILL LIKELY SEE STEADY OR GRADUALLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO NE NC,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW
AND PEAKING FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US STARTING TOMORROW AND
PEAKING LATER FRIDAY. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY STILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTING BACK TO THE
SW LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW, WILL SHOW HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE S/SW. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY,
THOUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE
DUE TO THE COLD WATERS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY REACH THE 80S FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW THURSDAY-FRIDAY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY), WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-50% POPS) ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY STALLS OR DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING A HEAVY RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO 0.3"
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 805 PM EST TUESDAY...
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE, OVER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN VA. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY (RIC/SBY), WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
PREVAIL, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OVER
PHF/ECG/ORF. SOME SHOWERS OVERRUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING, PUSHING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR DURING THE LATE
EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY SBY). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S TO SW, BUT
WILL PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO THE E OR SE ALONG THE COAST AND
EASTERN SHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO
THE E-NE NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING AS SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
- MARINE FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AREA WIDE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BEACH CAMERAS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
MARINE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX AND VA BEACH OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 00Z/7PM FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY,
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
CHARLES NORTH. THE SOUTHERN FOG ADVISORIES ARE SET TO END AT 4PM
BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS WELL BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE BRIEF AS WARMER AIR SPREADS BACK TO THE
NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW MIXED SIGNALS FOR
FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE RIVERS AND CHES BAY TONIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT N TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH S WIND MAINLY 5-10 KT. SUB-ADVISORY S AND SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY NE NC NOW SEEING
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE COASTAL SCAS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES WILL EXPIRE AT
4PM WITH THE SOUTHERN WATERS ENDING AT 7PM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SOME EASTERLY SWELL KEEPING SEAS NEAR 5 FT (MAINLY WELL
OFFSHORE NEAR 20 NM) BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXTENDING SCA HEADLINES
GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN OBSERVATIONS TODAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
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