457
FXUS61 KAKQ 040849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 AM FOR MUCH OF
NE NC AND MAY BE EXPANDED INTO PORTIONS OF SE VA IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
- TEMPERATURES FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AND NORTHERN NECK GIVEN A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WARM STARTS TODAY AND WILL BE LASTING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BEING CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY EXPECT PERIODIC
BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MUCH OF THE
TIME.
2) SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...1) A SIGNIFICANT WARM STARTS TODAY AND WILL BE
LASTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BEING CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY
EXPECT PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
MUCH OF THE TIME.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL
NORTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC. A SFC BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA, BUT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL
TEMPS PREVAILING, A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS PREVAILS. PATCHY
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS, ESPECIALLY IN NE NC AND
INTO FAR SE VA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9
AM FOR MUCH OF NE NC AND MAY BE EXPANDED INTO PORTIONS OF SE VA
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATER TODAY, THE H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW AND MAY PUSH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN/EVENING. LATEST
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE
WITH THIS IN MIND, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F ON THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH
TEMPS AT THE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE ERN SHORE
POTENTIALLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTN WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SEA FOG. LOW END POPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE N.
FOR TONIGHT, THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE THE EASTERN SHORE. ELSEWHERE,
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 40S ALONG AND N OF I-64, AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER
50S TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE US
COAST THU, AND AMPLIFIES, PUSHING THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WITH WITH 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE CONUS, WHICH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO AGAIN PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY BACK TO THE S. MODELS
DIFFER, BUT GENERALLY HAVE STARTED A MODEST TREND TO THIS
OCCURRING, AND BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO AT LEAST NE
PORTIONS OF THE FA FRI AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OR 60S IN THE FAR NE. A LOW CHC
FOR SHOWERS IS FORECAST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN
SHOWN TO LIFT BACK N (AGAIN) SAT, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER THE WARMUP (FOR AREAS THAT TREND COOLER FRIDAY), A MORE
PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50% POPS SAT NIGHT NW, PUSHING TO THE S ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS FROM THE NW AND LIKELY
STALLS OR DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES
ARE NOT SHOWING A HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM,
GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO 0.3" THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY-
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
A SFC BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED N OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL TEMP PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA AND NC, ALONG WITH A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12-13Z, ESPECIALLY IN NE NC AND INTO FAR SE
VA. RIC/SBY MAY SEE PATCHY FOG, BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ECG
(THOUGH AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE INCLUDED IN THE ORF
AND PHF TAF). WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SBY WILL TEND TO SEE A RETURN BACK TO ENE LATER IN
THE DAY (WITH POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AGAIN DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT). ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLY EARLY THURSDAY AT SBY,
WHILE IS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
(ESPECIALLY SBY). A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THE WINDS TO THE E-NE ON THE EASTERN SHORE FRI AFTN, WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS LATE FRIDAY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE
CHANCES ARE LOWER AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD
BE MAINLY VFR, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW
TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF MARINE FOG ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- A SUB-SCA WIND AND SEA STATE IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE
NEARSHORE OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS CURRENTLY INDICATE LITTLE FOG,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING (AND THE REST OF TODAY) FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM DEVELOP, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, BOUTS OF MARINE FOG ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
FOR TODAY, LIGHT S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-NE ~5 KT
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INCHES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT WINDS LIKELY HOLD ON FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TODAY. THE BOUNDARY PUSHES N AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN N OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO END THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS AT TIMES,
TEMPORARILY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E-NE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA, REGARDLESS OF THE WIND DIRECTION. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA-LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ013>016-NCZ030>032
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...SW
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