464
FXUS61 KAKQ 041740
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1240 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NE NC HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED.
- TEMPERATURES FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AND NORTHERN NECK GIVEN A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP STARTS TODAY AND WILL BE LASTING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BEING
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY EXPECT PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW
NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE IT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MUCH OF THE TIME.
2) SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 700 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...1) A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP STARTS TODAY AND WILL
BE LASTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BEING CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MUCH OF THE TIME.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL
NORTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC. A SFC BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA, BUT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL
TEMPS PREVAILING, A SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS PREVAILS. PATCHY
FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN, BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NE NC AS VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATER TODAY, THE H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW AND MAY PUSH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN/EVENING (ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN SHORE). LATEST FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
A FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH THIS IN MIND, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW- MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60F ON THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH TEMPS AT THE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE ERN SHORE POTENTIALLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SEA FOG. LOW END POPS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE N. FOR TONIGHT, THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE THE
EASTERN SHORE. ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S ALONG AND N OF
I-64, AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE US COAST THU, AND AMPLIFIES, PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WITH WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. BY
FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE
CONUS, WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO AGAIN PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE S. MODELS DIFFER, BUT GENERALLY HAVE STARTED A
MODEST TREND TO THIS OCCURRING, AND BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW BACK
TO AT LEAST NE PORTIONS OF THE FA FRI AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OR 60S IN THE
FAR NE. A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS IS FORECAST FRI AFTN/EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY IS THEN SHOWN TO LIFT BACK N (AGAIN) SAT, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER CHANCES (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER THE WARMUP (FOR AREAS THAT TREND COOLER FRIDAY), A MORE
PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50% POPS SAT NIGHT NW, PUSHING TO THE S ON
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS FROM THE NW AND LIKELY
STALLS OR DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES
ARE NOT SHOWING A HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM,
GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO 0.3" THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY-
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FRONT IS
POISED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SBY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND LIKELY IMPACT SBY BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT SBY A FEW HOURS LATER.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT SBY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR IFR OR LIFR CIGS SO WILL HANDLE
THIS POTENTIAL AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN WITH A
PROB30. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT SBY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST BUT THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY/CEILINGS AT
ORF AND PHF TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. W OR SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE 5-10
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT ORF AND ECG,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SW FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY SBY BUT
PERHAPS RIC AS WELL. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THE WINDS TO THE E-NE ON THE EASTERN SHORE FRI AFTN, WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS LATE FRIDAY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE
CHANCES ARE LOWER AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW
TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF MARINE FOG ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF
FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
- A SUB-SCA WIND AND SEA STATE IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE
NEARSHORE OBSERVATIONS AND CAMERAS CURRENTLY INDICATE LITTLE FOG,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE MORNING (AND THE REST OF TODAY) FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM DEVELOP, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, BOUTS OF MARINE FOG ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
FOR TODAY, LIGHT S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-NE ~5 KT
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INCHES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT WINDS LIKELY HOLD ON FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TODAY. THE BOUNDARY PUSHES N AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN N OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO END THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS AT TIMES,
TEMPORARILY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E-NE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA, REGARDLESS OF THE WIND DIRECTION. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA-LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...SW
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