705
FXUS61 KAKQ 041926
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
226 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL LINGER
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE
IT MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MUCH OF THE TIME.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BRINGING
PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE IT MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
MUCH OF THE TIME.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR S AND SE WITH A
STATIONARY (OR VERY SLOW-MOVING) FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY ZONAL
WITH A SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX NOTED ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE KY/OH
VICINITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WITH THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE N CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY WITH AREAS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT/CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FARTHER
N, TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH OCEAN CITY
STILL STUCK IN THE UPPER 40S WITH ONSHORE FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRACKS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY
SPARKING SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND INCREASE PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WHERE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. MUCH MORE PLEASANT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT N OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY MAY
ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO MAKE A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS.
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE COOLER AIR CAN MAKE IT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS/GEFS ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR EXTENT VS THE WARMER ECMWF AND CMC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER THE WARMUP (FOR AREAS THAT TREND COOLER FRIDAY), A MORE
PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50%
POPS SAT NIGHT NW, PUSHING TO THE S ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY STALLS OR DISSIPATES
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING A
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO
0.3" THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE
BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT A FRONT IS
POISED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SBY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND LIKELY IMPACT SBY BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT SBY A FEW HOURS LATER.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT SBY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR IFR OR LIFR CIGS SO WILL HANDLE
THIS POTENTIAL AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN WITH A
PROB30. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT SBY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
FORECAST BUT THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY/CEILINGS AT
ORF AND PHF TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. W OR SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE 5-10
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT ORF AND ECG,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. SW FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY SBY BUT
PERHAPS RIC AS WELL. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THE WINDS TO THE E-NE ON THE EASTERN SHORE FRI AFTN, WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS LATE FRIDAY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE
CHANCES ARE LOWER AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW
TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE FOG LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- A SUB-SCA WIND AND SEA STATE IS FORECAST INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON,WITH THE NEXT SCA POTENTIAL BEING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY LIGHT (~5 TO 10 KT) S TO SW WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
MD/DE BORDER. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING E OR NE ~5 KT IN ITS
WAKE. THE FRONT LIKELY DROPS THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY THIS
EVENING, BUT LIKELY STAYS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE FRONT DROP TO THE SOUTH, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE
FOG TO DEVELOP. CAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF OF OCEAN CITY, MD
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INDICATE DEVELOPING MARINE FOG, THOUGH
IT HAS NOT BECOME DENSE YET. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, BOUTS OF
MARINE FOG ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES N AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO END THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS AT TIMES,
TEMPORARILY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E-NE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA, REGARDLESS OF THE WIND
DIRECTION. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/SW
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