845
FXUS61 KAKQ 222341
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST TODAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, REMAINING MILD/WARM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPS COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST TODAY AND MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, REMAINING MILD/WARM
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY, BREEZY SW WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-DROPPING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND PA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT AT THE SFC (DEW
POINTS RANGING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S AND THE 50S) WITH VERY DRY AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. AS AFTERNOON MIXING CONTINUES, EXPECT DEW POINTS
TO DROP A BIT MORE AS TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE 80S. THIS
PORTENDS TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS AND THE PREVIOUSLY-
ISSUED INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
PM THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY THE MID-
MORNING MONDAY. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH
DRIER AIR (DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S) ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. THE
DEGREE OF FIRE WX CONCERN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OVERLAP CAN
OCCUR WITH THE WINDS AND LOWERING RH, AS THE DRIEST AIR SHOULD
NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. DON'T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME AND WILL
DEFER TO THE EVENING SHIFT TO ASSESS THE FRONTAL TIMING AND ANY
POTENTIAL PRODUCT ISSUANCE. REGARDLESS, AT LEAST AN IFD
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND PIEDMONT.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE N, WITH THE (LOWERING) CHANCES SPREADING S AROUND
SUNRISE. RAIN AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE; THUS, EXPECT NO
IMPACT TO THE FIRE WX FORECAST FROM THIS PRECIP. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IS ALSO LITTLE TO NONE GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FROPA TIMING
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPS COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
1030+ MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY
BEHIND MONDAY'S FRONT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND NEAR 50F AT THE
COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT, ALLOWING A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD BY LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES
AND ALLOW THE MILD TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS S. THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FROPA TO OCCUR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THIS PERIOD. THERE IS THEN
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER STRETCH OF WX NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS EVEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH WILL TEND TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SW
WINDS ~10 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLWS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE N. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY. INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT THESE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH
THE FRONT, BRIEFLY IFR AT SBY. WINDS BECOME NW THEN N 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS ~20 KT MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT QUICKLY INLAND BUT LIKELY HANG ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AT THE FOR SE VA AND NE NC.
OUTLOOK: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOLID SCAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KT GUSTS IMMEDIATELY POST-FRONTAL MONDAY
NIGHT.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE DENSE FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS
SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. THE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND WINDS
HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. MARINE OBS ARE CURRENTLY MEASURING WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN IT'S
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ENCOMPASSING BOTH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A SECOND SURGE MONDAY NIGHT, AS
MARKEDLY COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS GRADUALLY WARMING WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ON MONDAY NIGHT. PROBS CONTINUE TO DROP IN REGARDS TO PROBS FOR
34KT GUSTS, SO WILL JUST HANDLE ANY OVER-PERFORMING GUSTS WITH SMWS.
THE CAA SURGE IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH NNW FLOW WEAKENING QUICKLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN VEERING BACK TO THE SSW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCAS IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY IN SW FLOW.
SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCREASE AS WELL,
LIKELY TO 2-4 FT (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH). HOWEVER, SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ638.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/NB
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