172
FXUS61 KAKQ 230958
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
558 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IFD IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST TODAY, PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, REMAINING
MILD/WARM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) TEMPS COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN TURNS
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST TODAY, PARTICULARLY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, REMAINING
MILD/WARM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LAGGING A
BIT BEHIND IT, BUT ARE APPROACHING THE AREA AS WELL. STILL THINKING
THE LINE WILL LOSE STEAM BY THE TIME IT GETS TO CENTRAL VA AS
IT MOVES INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITHOUT ANY STRONG SOURCE OF
FORCING. STILL EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, THOUGH,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BETWEEN 11-14Z.
QPF IS STILL ONLY A TRACE TO 0.05". CAMS DO HINT AT A LITTLE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, SO DID ADD 15-20%
POPS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL AS QUICKLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS. MIN RHS ARE 30-35%,
BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON TO GET THERE. WITHOUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP RECENTLY, THIS DOES CREATE INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS ALONG AND
W OF I-95 IN AN ELEVATED RISK AREA IN THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AN IFD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT AND WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 7PM.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY FOR MOST, ALBEIT BREEZY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NE NC. CHILLY TEMPS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPS COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN TURNS
UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1030MB+) BUILDS BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT,
BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AT
THE COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT,
ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD BY LATE WEEK, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THICKNESSES HELPING MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY (A FEW DEGREES COOLER
NEAR THE WATER) AND IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. SO FAR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AND TUESDAY: A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SATURDAY. AS OF NOW,
FRIDAY DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA
THAN TODAY'S FRONT- ALTHOUGH THAT BAR ISN'T VERY HIGH.
PROBABILITY OF 0.1" OR GREATER IS SITTING AT 40-60% IN THE GEFS
AND 50-70% IN THE EURO ENS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 555 AM EDT MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPOTTY AS
THE LINE IS LOSING STEAM THE FURTHER EAST IT GETS. INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT THESE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH
THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY IFR AT SBY. MAY HAVE A STRAY SHOWER AT
THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT MENTION TO VCSH
SINCE THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS BECOME NW THEN N 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS ~20 KT MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT QUICKLY INLAND BUT LIKELY HANG ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AT THE FOR SE VA AND NE NC.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND BRING
SOLID SCA LEVEL WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR 35-40 KT
GUSTS TONIGHT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LATEST OBS REFLECT SSW WINDS ~10-15 KT, OWING TO COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT, ORIENTED
JUST NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS WRITING, WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SUNRISE, THE LOWER BAY
AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BY MID MORNING, AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
ZONES/CURRITUCK SOUND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NNW
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
BETTER CAA WILL TAKE A WHILE TO ARRIVE INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT , BUT WE'LL BEGIN TO NOTE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND FOR THAT REASON,
WILL KEEP SCA TIMING AS IS DESPITE A MODEST LULL IN STRONGEST WINDS
UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREVAILING POST-FRONTAL (NORTHERLY)
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT
TONIGHT WITH THE SECONDARY CAA SURGE, AS MARKEDLY COOLER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT AFTER 6-8PM TONIGHT. WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. THAT BEING THE CASE,
THIS SURGE WOULD LIKELY BEST BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED SMW RATHER
THAN A GALE HEADLINE, THUS THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES.
WAVES 1-2 FT THIS MORNING, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT, COMPRISED
MAINLY BY S-SE WIND WAVE @ 6-8 SECONDS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE
E/SE SWELL BUILDS SEAS CLOSER TO 4-5 FT WITH BUILDING WIND WAVE.
HAVE PUSHED SCA A BIT FARTHER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY OVER THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERN WATERS MAY NEED TO ULTIMATELY BE EXTENDED A
BIT FARTHER INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NE WIND WAVES LIKELY HOLDING SEAS UP
~4-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY.
THE CAA SURGE IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH NNW FLOW WEAKENING QUICKLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN VEERING BACK TO THE SSW LATE TUES
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCAS THEREAFTER COMES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN SW FLOW. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY
HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WAVES IN
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCREASE AS WELL, LIKELY TO 2-4 FT (HIGHEST AT
THE MOUTH). HOWEVER, SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079-080-509>511-
513>515.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC/RHR
MARINE...MAM
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