569
FXUS61 KAKQ 231843
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE PIEDMONT.
2) TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN START TO MODERATE
BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
PATTERN TURNS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT.
A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT TRIED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
MORNING, THEY PETERED OUT AND PRACTICALLY DIMINISHED , WHICH LIMITED
ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP WEST OF I-
95, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH BEING MEASURED THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 50S REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE OVER PERFORMED BY A FEW DEGREES, LEADING TO
RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50% (UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70% ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE) THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AIR IS RIGHT ON THE
CUSP OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT IT IS LAGGING MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WINDOW WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SHORT AS THE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BY THE TIME WE START LOSING DAY LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN START TO
MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE PATTERN TURNS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REPLACE OUR CURRENT MILD AIRMASS
WITH A MUCH COOLER ONE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S (NW) TO NEAR 40F (SE) TONIGHT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S (UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F EASTERN SHORE AND IMMEDIATE COAST). WHILE LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER FILLS IN. REGARDLESS,
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH
WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT, RETURNING NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUMPING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH THE RAIN FOOTPRINT IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND IS
NOT LOOKING VERY PROMINENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH. BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
A FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAVING ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH EXCEPT AT ECG WHERE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES ASIDE FROM RIC FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS DRIER, COOLER AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH THE COASTAL SITES
CONTINUING TO GUST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE INLAND SITES WILL SEE WINDS
TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND BRING
SOLID SCA LEVEL WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR 35-40 KT
GUSTS TONIGHT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LATEST OBS REFLECT SSW WINDS ~10-15 KT, OWING TO COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT, ORIENTED
JUST NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS WRITING, WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SUNRISE, THE LOWER BAY
AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BY MID MORNING, AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
ZONES/CURRITUCK SOUND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NNW
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
BETTER CAA WILL TAKE A WHILE TO ARRIVE INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT , BUT WE'LL BEGIN TO NOTE SCA-LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND FOR THAT REASON,
WILL KEEP SCA TIMING AS IS DESPITE A MODEST LULL IN STRONGEST WINDS
UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. PREVAILING POST-FRONTAL (NORTHERLY)
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT
TONIGHT WITH THE SECONDARY CAA SURGE, AS MARKEDLY COOLER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT AFTER 6-8PM TONIGHT. WIND PROBABILITIES FOR
FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. THAT BEING THE CASE,
THIS SURGE WOULD LIKELY BEST BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED SMW RATHER
THAN A GALE HEADLINE, THUS THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES.
WAVES 1-2 FT THIS MORNING, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT, COMPRISED
MAINLY BY S-SE WIND WAVE @ 6-8 SECONDS. BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE
E/SE SWELL BUILDS SEAS CLOSER TO 4-5 FT WITH BUILDING WIND WAVE.
HAVE PUSHED SCA A BIT FARTHER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY OVER THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERN WATERS MAY NEED TO ULTIMATELY BE EXTENDED A
BIT FARTHER INTO TUE NIGHT WITH NE WIND WAVES LIKELY HOLDING SEAS UP
~4-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY.
THE CAA SURGE IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH NNW FLOW WEAKENING QUICKLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN VEERING BACK TO THE SSW LATE TUES
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCAS THEREAFTER COMES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN SW FLOW. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY
HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WAVES IN
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCREASE AS WELL, LIKELY TO 2-4 FT (HIGHEST AT
THE MOUTH). HOWEVER, SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-079-080-509>511-513>515.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...MAM
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