360
FXUS61 KAKQ 232331
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED FIRE WEATHER KEY MESSAGE. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN START TO
MODERATE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE
WEEK. THE PATTERN TURNS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN
START TO MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE
WEEK. THE PATTERN TURNS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REPLACE OUR CURRENT MILD AIRMASS
WITH A MUCH COOLER ONE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S (NW) TO NEAR 40F (SE) TONIGHT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S (UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F EASTERN SHORE AND IMMEDIATE COAST). WHILE LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER FILLS IN. REGARDLESS,
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH
WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT, RETURNING NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUMPING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH THE RAIN FOOTPRINT IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND IS
NOT LOOKING VERY PROMINENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH. BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE FRONT FROM EARLIER IS NOW SOUTH OF THE THE TERMINALS. WINDS
HAVE INCREASE OUT OF THE N TO NNE WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO
20-25+ KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING
LATE. LOWER CLOUDS, POTENTIALLY WITH BASES ~3000 FT, MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IMPACTING ORF
AND PHF. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LESS WIND ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 247 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-SCA ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
A HIGH ACROSS THE MID-WEST. SINCE THE PASSING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN THE WINDS AS THEY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HOWEVER, JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS THE DRY AND COLD AIR IS NOW
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT OUT
OF THE NORTH. WILL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KT BETWEEN 8PM MON THROUGH 12AM
TUES. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS NEARING 35KT IS TO LOW FOR
ANY GALE WARNING. ANY GUSTS OVER 34KT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A SHORT
FUSED SMW. SEAS ARE REMAINING CALM WITH AROUND 1 FT ACROSS THE BAY
AND 2-3FT ACROSS THE WATERS. BUT, AS THE WIND INCREASES IN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS EXPECT WAVES TO INCREASE TO 2-4 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE OCEAN. WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AND LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS. SINCE THE CAA LAGGED BEHIND DID EXTENDED THE
SCA FOR THE RIVERS THROUGH 9Z TUES. OTHER EXTENSIONS OF SCA MAYBE
NEEDED DUE TO THIS LAG IN WIND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MID-TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THESE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
WATERS LATE TOMORROW THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD BE LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...NB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...HET
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