132
FXUS61 KAKQ 241845
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FLOW RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S
NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
CLEAR SKY, DIMINISHING WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
QUICK COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD, DUE TO
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, AND SOME UPPER 20S IN S- CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC.. THE HIGH IS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT, AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
MILDER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY STEADILY MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY, AND THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN
FACT, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF IS GENERALLY 0.1-0.25" FROM 12Z/24 ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP POST- FRONTAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WHICH ARE AT LEAST 10F
BELOW SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. POTENTIALLY VERY DRY
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW VALUES OF 25-40% OF NORMAL
SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS
OF 18Z. VFR WITH AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CU DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER
CHES. BAY WITH BASES ~4.5KFT. THE WIND IS NE 5-10KT, AND LOCALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS ~20KT AT ECG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT
(5KT OR LESS) OUT OF THE SE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
THEN S 5-10KT INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S
ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER
TODAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT RESULTS IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS TO END THE WEEK.
CURRENT EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE THE N/NNE WIND
SHIFT THAT CAME IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SOME ACROSS THE
MIDDLE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH GUSTS TO 20-25KT WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY, MOUTH
OF THE BAY, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, GUSTS TO 30-35KT REMAIN AS
OF THIS WRITING. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 40KT GUSTS WE WERE SEEING AN
HOUR OR TWO AGO. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SEAS AND
WAVES ALSO CAME UP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH COASTAL WATER
BUOYS READING AROUND 5-7FT SEAS AND 2-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL THE CHOPPY WATERS.
THUS, SCAS REMAIN FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RIVERS, NORTHERN BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND WILL SEE THEIR SCAS EXPIRE
BY SUNRISE. THE SOUTHERN AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL KEEP THEIR SCA
UNTIL 10AM DUE TO LINGERING WIND GUSTS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THEN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL DROP OFF GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WAVE
HEIGHTS DECREASE TO 2-3FT BY THIS EVENING. SOME 4FT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE NC COAST.
MUCH MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3FT WITH WAVES IN THE BAY OF
2FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT BREEZES BACK TO THE WATERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CREATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PUSH. SCAS FOR GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND
RIVERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. A SECONDARY SURGE MAY RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP
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