210
FXUS61 KAKQ 241858
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FLOW RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S
NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
CLEAR SKY, DIMINISHING WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
QUICK COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD, DUE TO
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, AND SOME UPPER 20S IN S- CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC.. THE HIGH IS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT, AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
MILDER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY STEADILY MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY, AND THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN
FACT, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF IS GENERALLY 0.1-0.25" FROM 12Z/24 ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP POST- FRONTAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WHICH ARE AT LEAST 10F
BELOW SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. POTENTIALLY VERY DRY
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW VALUES OF 25-40% OF NORMAL
SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS
OF 18Z. VFR WITH AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CU DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER
CHES. BAY WITH BASES ~4.5KFT. THE WIND IS NE 5-10KT, AND LOCALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS ~20KT AT ECG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT
(5KT OR LESS) OUT OF THE SE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
THEN S 5-10KT INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S
ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DECREASING WIND TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON
WED MORNING, HOWEVER BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE BY EVENING ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL MOSTLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE S-SW
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OF 15-25 KT AS
EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N-NE WITH CONTINUED 15 TO
25 KT WINDS EXPECTED UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ONCE AGAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
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