507
FXUS61 KAKQ 250511
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
111 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY, THEN MODERATE
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IN NE FLOW RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S
NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
CLEAR SKY, DIMINISHING WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
QUICK COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL AS LOW AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD, DUE TO
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS, ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, AND SOME UPPER 20S IN S- CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC.. THE HIGH IS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT, AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
MILDER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY STEADILY MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY, AND THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN
FACT, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF IS GENERALLY 0.1-0.25" FROM 12Z/24 ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP POST- FRONTAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WHICH ARE AT LEAST 10F
BELOW SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. POTENTIALLY VERY DRY
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW VALUES OF 25-40% OF NORMAL
SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
BECOME SE OR SSE 5-10 KT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNRISE,
THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH QUICK
CLEARING THEREAFTER. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DECREASING WIND TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON
WED MORNING, HOWEVER BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE BY EVENING ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL MOSTLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OF 15-25 KT AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE N-NE WITH CONTINUED 15 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED
UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...MRD
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