225
FXUS61 KAKQ 250610
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY, THEN MODERATE
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 AS OF THIS WRITING, AND AS
CLOUDS THIN TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MILDER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL
START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY STEADILY
MODERATING; FIRST TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY, AND THEN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF REMAINS IN THE
0.1-0.25" RANGE VIA THE 00Z/25 ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGHEST
QPF REMAINS ALONG/NORTH OF I-64. AFTER A VERY MILD TO WARM
START TO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY DROP POST-
FRONTAL FRIDAY NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY, FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY, AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S (MILDEST INLAND). THESE VALUES ARE AT LEAST 10F BELOW
SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY DRY
POST-FRONTAL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND, IF QPF REMAINS MINIMAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW
VALUES OF ONLY 25-40% OF NORMAL SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
BECOME SE OR SSE 5-10 KT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNRISE,
THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH QUICK
CLEARING THEREAFTER. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DECREASING WIND TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DIMINISHING WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 4-7 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON
WED MORNING, HOWEVER BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE BY EVENING ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL MOSTLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OF 15-25 KT AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE N-NE WITH CONTINUED 15 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED
UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...MRD
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