622
FXUS61 KAKQ 251011
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY, THEN MODERATE
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 AS OF THIS WRITING, AND AS
CLOUDS THIN TOWARD SUNRISE, WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MILDER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL
START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY STEADILY
MODERATING; FIRST TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY, AND THEN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN, QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF INCH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF REMAINS IN THE
0.1-0.25" RANGE VIA THE 00Z/25 ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGHEST
QPF REMAINS ALONG/NORTH OF I-64. AFTER A VERY MILD TO WARM
START TO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY DROP POST-
FRONTAL FRIDAY NIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
DESPITE A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY, FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY, AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S (MILDEST INLAND). THESE VALUES ARE AT LEAST 10F BELOW
SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY DRY
POST-FRONTAL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND, IF QPF REMAINS MINIMAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW
VALUES OF ONLY 25-40% OF NORMAL SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 610 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
BECOME SE OR SSE 5-10 KT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PERIODS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT LATE THU
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING, BRINGING
A CHC OF SHOWERS. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH QUICK CLEARING
THEREAFTER. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY BRINGS A PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS TO END THE WEEK.
CURRENT EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD
WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT AND WAVES OF 1-2 FT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BRINGS CHANGES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING, THOUGH REMAINING BORDERLINE SCA
SPEEDS AS OF NOW FOR THE BAY AND RIVERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 5 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, THUS
POTENTIALLY PROMPTING A SCA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. EXPECT SPEEDS TO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT PER USUAL,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS. THE GUSTINESS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...JKP
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