078
FXUS61 KAKQ 251859
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 50S TOWARD THE COAST (UPPER 40S MD COAST), TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S INLAND UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THE WIND IS LIGHT
AND GENERALLY S INLAND AND E/SE ALONG THE COAST.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FARTHER OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND THURSDAY WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S TOWARD THE COAST. A SW WIND INCREASES TO 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. VERY MILD THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 25/12Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IN
THROUGH CENTRAL VA BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F ACROSS THE N, WHILE AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC LIKELY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN BETWEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
EVENING, AS THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. FORCING STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, THE EPS 50TH PERCENTILE DID INCREASE TO 0.25-0.4"
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA (ALONG AND N/NE OF I-64)
WITH 0.1-0.25" FARTHER S. MEANWHILE, GEFS/GEPS ARE GENERALLY
0.25" OR LESS. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS ANAFRONTAL. THEREFORE,
THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP POST- FRONTAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON GUSTY NNE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY,
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (MILDEST INLAND). THESE
VALUES ARE AT LEAST 10F BELOW SEASONAL MEANS. FORECAST LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. ALSO POTENTIALLY VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND, IF QPF REMAINS
MINIMAL, BUT WILL BE MITIGATED IF QPF IS IN EXCESS OF 0.1".
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING PW VALUES OF ONLY 25-40% OF NORMAL
SATURDAY AND 50-70% OF NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND COMMENCING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AS OF 18Z. VFR UNDER SCT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH A S WIND OF 5-10KT AND E/SE 5-10KT TOWARD
THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WIND BECOMES S 5-10KT TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES, AND THEN SW 10-15KT
THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT DROP N-S ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NNE. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE STARTING POTENTIALLY
AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
AFTN/EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THEN SLOWLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THU EVENING. AS FREQUENTLY HAPPENS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTS, THE NWP WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE
BUT WITH THIS TIGHT OF GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SCA
WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE 3RD
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG PUSH
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS TURN N-NE. WOULD
EXPECT WINDS TO BE BRIEFLY RATHER GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THERE IS AN HOUR OR TWO OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS. IN FACT, LOCAL WIND PROBAILITIES SUGGEST A 10
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 3 TO 5 FEET SAT
EVENING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND AT SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
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