351
FXUS61 KAKQ 261906
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND ENHANCED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
LOWERED DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
2) COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
3) DRYING OUT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION RELATIVELY MIXED AND THEREFORE
KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH MOST PLACES NOT DROPPING BELOW OF
THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN CROSSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF WILL
LIKELY BE DRY WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS AGREEMENT ON
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATER FRI AM
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE 0.25 TO 0.5" OF
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN
WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGESTING MUCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST BUT IT MIGHT BE A CONSIDERATION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
ONE BIG FEATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A POINT FRI AFTERNOON WHERE THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S,
WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND COOL OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS LEADING TO RH VALUES
IN THE LOWER 20S PERCENT INLAND. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE STAYING NORTH OF THE
THE AREA. PERHAPS SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BUT THOSE CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL MOST LIKELY FALL BEYOND 18Z TOMORROW. SBY AND RIC
MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. BIG CHANGE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT SBY AND RIC AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOME INDICATION THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY THEN GUSTY NW WINDS ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY, LOWER
JAMES, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
- THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE INITIAL SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AND COLD AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE LOWER BAY ZONES AND
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SOUTH ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SE US COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 - 15 KTS OVER THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT, NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
PUSHING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD HELP THE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 - 20 KT WITH GUST NEAR 25 KT. THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT
EXPECT A QUICK SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT
LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS MOVE
UP A FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA CONDITIONS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASE IN WINDS.
ONCE THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN AND APPROACH GALE FORCE. WITH THE CHANCES FOR GALE
CONDITIONS ARE AROUND 30% AT THIS RANGE, HAVE GONE WITH A GALE WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCA ISSUED LATER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ632>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ESS
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