467
FXUS61 KAKQ 271026
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS MORNING.
- SCAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A MILD MORNING, A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
2) DRYING OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A MILD MORNING, A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, KEEPING OUR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED UP MORNING LOWS A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT MAY STILL BE TOO LOW.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT AT THE NORTHERN
TIP OF VIRGINIA, MEANING THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT
REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE, THEN CROSSING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
ITSELF. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO RUSH IN. WE'VE
SEEN THIS KIND OF THING HAPPEN SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE LAST MONTH OR
TWO, SO WE KNOW THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A POINT THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WHILE
SOUTHERN AREAS ARE STILL BASKING IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST EVERYONE, WITH
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT SOME
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TO 20-25 MPH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A BAND OF SHOWERS TRYING TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN AREAS MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND START TO MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD. OUR
FORECAST HAS RAIN TOTALS OF 0.35-0.5" FOR ALMOST EVERYONE, WITH
LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LASTLY, NEED TO MENTION
THE VERY BRIEF THREAT OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS INLAND NE NC AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AS A SMALL POCKET OF WEAK
MUCAPE DEVELOPS. RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRYING OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WON'T GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE,
NORTHERN NECK AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE VA BEACH AREA. WESTERN
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF WE END UP SEEING
LESS RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
POSE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE RAINFALL IS ENOUGH TO HELP "WASH AWAY" THOSE
CONCERNS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, MINUS
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER/NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCE WE MIGHT SEE
MAY COME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM EACH DAY WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY, UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY, AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE MILD SIDE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 625 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR TO START THIS MORNING WITH SSW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SW TO THE NNW AND THEN NNE AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY, MAINTAINING THE
GUSTINESS AS WELL - TIMING WILL BE LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTH,
BUT NOT UNTIL LATE AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, GENERALLY
AFTER 18Z-20Z. IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR
AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY S-SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
- A STRONG SURGE IN N TO NE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL OF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NW AND WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, S-SW WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS. WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING AND BECOMING N TO NE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BRIEFLY
DIMINISHING AGAIN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURGE. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT (SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS
EXPIRE THIS EVENING).
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WIND SURGE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL SURGE
TODAY, WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34+
KNOT GUSTS GENERALLY AVERAGE ~30% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, THOUGH
THEY DO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO ~40-60% ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS IS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE
THE FINAL CALL ON ANY GALE HEADLINES AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z DATA.
ELSEWHERE, SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME AND NOW CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS SURGE. FINALLY, ADDITIONAL SCAS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER RIVERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
656-658.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ632>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
DISCUSSION...JKP/MRD
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...AJB
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