282
FXUS61 KAKQ 271753
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS MORNING.
- SCAS EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A MILD MORNING, A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
2) DRYING OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A MILD MORNING, A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, KEEPING OUR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA. BUMPED UP MORNING LOWS A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT MAY STILL BE TOO LOW.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT AT THE NORTHERN
TIP OF VIRGINIA, MEANING THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE FRONT
REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE, THEN CROSSING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
ITSELF. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO RUSH IN. WE'VE
SEEN THIS KIND OF THING HAPPEN SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE LAST MONTH OR
TWO, SO WE KNOW THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A POINT THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WHILE
SOUTHERN AREAS ARE STILL BASKING IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST EVERYONE, WITH
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT SOME
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES TO 20-25 MPH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A BAND OF SHOWERS TRYING TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN AREAS MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND START TO MOVE IN MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD. OUR
FORECAST HAS RAIN TOTALS OF 0.35-0.5" FOR ALMOST EVERYONE, WITH
LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LASTLY, NEED TO MENTION
THE VERY BRIEF THREAT OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS INLAND NE NC AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT AS A SMALL POCKET OF WEAK
MUCAPE DEVELOPS. RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRYING OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WON'T GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE,
NORTHERN NECK AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE VA BEACH AREA. WESTERN
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF WE END UP SEEING
LESS RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
POSE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE IF THE RAINFALL IS ENOUGH TO HELP "WASH AWAY" THOSE
CONCERNS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, MINUS
ALONG THE COASTLINE.
SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER/NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCE WE MIGHT SEE
MAY COME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM EACH DAY WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY, UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY, AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE MILD SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN VA AS OF 18Z. THE WIND
HAS SHIFTED TO N/NE 10-15KT WITH GUSTS ~20KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE ONLY SITE THAT REMAINS WSW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS
ECG, WHICH SHOULD HAVE A WIND SHIFT BY 19-20Z. VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SBY, WHICH HAS MVFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FALL THIS AFTN AS NNE MOISTURE THICKENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MOST SITES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTN, WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. RAIN DEVELOPS NW-SW LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY PRODUCING MVFR VSBY. THE WIND REMAINS NE 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~20KT THIS EVENING, AND THEN BECOMES NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS ~25KT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE NW LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LOW CIGS SCATTERING AND LIFTING, AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SURGE OF COOLER AIR RESULTING IN IN N TO NE WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE-FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 35
KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND WORKING ITS WAY INTO NE NC. WINDS HAVE
QUICKLY BECOME NE AND JUMPED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS JUMP IN WIND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE BRIEFLY
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE WEAKENS. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND SURGE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
INITIAL SURGE TODAY, WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT HAVE DECREASED,
BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY AND MORE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES SOUTH. THE GALE
WATCH FOR THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND
REPLACED WITH EXTENDED SCAS FOR GUSTS TO 30 KT OR A LITTLE MORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE CHARLES SOUTH FROM 4 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...JKP/MRD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JAO
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