745
FXUS61 KAKQ 280027
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES.
- RAIN ARRIVES A LITTLE SLOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN PUSHES SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
2) DRYING OUT AND REMAING COOL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
3) A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK
BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 810 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING,
BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER, FOR SOME ISOLATED TSTMS THAT WILL BE ENDING
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 40S
NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH, AND WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE
30S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN AREA
LATE THIS EVENING, BUT LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 2-3
AM. QPF HAS AVERAGED 0.20-0.40" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL VA THUS
FAR, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE. LITTLE HAS FALLEN ACROSS
FAR SE VA AND NE NC, BUT THIS WILL BE FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRYING OUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN US. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, NORTHERN
NECK AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE VA BEACH AREA. MEANWHILE,
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL PRIMARILY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. IF NC ZONES END UP SEEING LESS RAINFALL
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY POSE AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER THREAT ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF
THE RAINFALL IS ENOUGH TO HELP "WASH AWAY" THOSE CONCERNS. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST, AND FORECAST LOWS WERE NUDGED BELOW NBM.
WARMER AND NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND
THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THROUGH MID-WEEK (AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY) AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
TO WARM EACH DAY WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY, UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE MILD SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO THE AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE MOIST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED. HOWEVER, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMESCALE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 810 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL S OF THE AREA, WITH ELEVATED N TO
NE WINDS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING, GUSTING TO 20-25 KT.
CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY LOW- END MVFR TO IFR AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT (LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z ACROSS THE SE). THE WIND
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING TO
15-20KT WITH GUSTS ~25KT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN. DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW CIGS SCATTERING AND
LIFTING, AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH SW FLOW RETURNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SURGE OF COOLER AIR RESULTING IN IN N TO NE WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
- A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE-FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 35
KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND WORKING ITS WAY INTO NE NC. WINDS HAVE
QUICKLY BECOME NE AND JUMPED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS JUMP IN WIND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING. NE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE BRIEFLY
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE WEAKENS. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND SURGE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
INITIAL SURGE TODAY, WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT HAVE DECREASED,
BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY AND MORE
LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES SOUTH. THE GALE
WATCH FOR THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND
REPLACED WITH EXTENDED SCAS FOR GUSTS TO 30 KT OR A LITTLE MORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE CHARLES SOUTH FROM 4 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING SATURDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
635>638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/JKP
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...JAO
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